We’ve updated the method of calculating the Elo ratings into our Age of Sigmar stats, this includes an attempt to reflect both the tournament strength and the faction strength.

All of the results in this article are taken from Best Coast Pairings, , Ecksen, ChampionshipHub, Milarki, Mini Headquarters, Tabletop Herald and Longshanks. They include GT (Two day events) or GT+ (6 or more rounds) only.

For patrons, you’ll be able to download and play with the database as well (which includes all the lists and stats for all the factions).

As always, if you’re struggling to read a chart, you should be able to right click and then either view or download the image.

Tournaments Included (Using July Battlescroll)

Event	Players	1st	2nd	3rd	WC
2026 Midwest Madness	22	DoT	CoS	KBZ
2026 Vienna Summer Tabletop Major AoS Singles	41	KBZ	BoK	LRL	DoT
4th Annual Thunderstrike GT!	32	SER	CoS	MoN	OM
Age of Ropecon GT 2026	31	SYL	HoS	DoT	SCE
Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament – Warhammer Open Tacoma	104	HoS	DoK	DoT
Age of the Beast – 2 Day AOS GT	16	SoB	SER	SYL
AoS @ Call to Arms 2026	26	HoH	MoN	SBGL
AoS Grimnirs Revenge 2026 GT	30	SBGL	FYR	CoS	IJZ
AoS Summer Scourge Presented by Carolina Reavers	33	CoS	CoS	SBGL	HoS
Ashes of the Arena GT	24	NH	DoT	StD
Bad Moon Brawl GT#1	13	CoS	SBGL	IDK
Battle of the Bay V	21	SYL	GG	SBGL	LRL
Beer Garden Bash	22	CoS	GG	SKA
Bière & Marteau 2026	12	KO	SoB	HoH
Bison Brawl Broken Fences!	50	SCE	FEC	CoS
Black Tower Wargaming Summer AOS Ironman Event	10	CoS	DoK	SoB
Boise Cup AOS 2026!	22	HoS	StD	LRL	MoN
Death by North West GT	19	DoT	CoS	FYR	SER
Egide AOS 2000ps Nouveau Manuel	14	SoB	IJZ	HoH
El Agravio del Enanao Gruñón	12	StD	NH	SoB
Fall Frenzy @ Warpfire Minis: August 29th-30th	31	KBZ	SER	SBGL
Feud on the Fens 2026	56	SoB	SYL	DoT	NH
Fields of Slaughter GT 2	22	IJZ	HoH	StD
Fountain City Fight Club	29	FYR	CoS	SER	MoN
Gateway Open Age of Sigmar 2026	52	FYR	KBZ	SYL	SoB
Geekfest -Summer Heat – Age of Sigmar	10	SoB	KBZ	HoH
Göteborgsslaget 2, slaget om Hisingen	40	HoS	FYR	SKA
GT Solo AoS Goublins Villers-Bocage	42	DoK	BoK	SBGL
GT WarhaSquigs	52	DoK	BoK	NH
HUXLEYS OPEN 2026 – AGE OF SIGMAR	50	HoS	SCE	SCE
Ironweld: Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament	53	CoS	StD	KBZ	MoN
King in the North 2026	15	SoB	GG	FYR
KREFELD MAJOR AoS 2026	42	DoK	SoB	SYL	LRL
La Classique d’été	28	SYL	KO	SYL	SKA
Limestone City Grand Tournament 2026	20	IJZ	SoB	LRL
Lone Star Open 2026 – Age of Sigmar Champs	40	GG	IDK	CoS	StD
Mannheimer Summer Clash	40	OBR	IJZ	DoK
MAW Tribe Telarah Takedown 2026	35	SCE	SYL	CoS
Mercia Madness V	18	KBZ	SoB	HoS	MoN
Mighty Founding – July 2026	26	MoN	BoK	HoS	IDK
Mile High Open 2026	33	SoB	SYL	SER
Mox AOS 2k Tournament – August 2026	16	SYL	CoS	SBGL
Nashcon Age of Sigmar GT 2026	112	MoN	StD	LRL
NctctAOS	18	SKA	HoS	GG
NI GT	52	CoS	DoT	DoK	KO
Ogopogo Open AOS GT	30	HoS	SYL	DoT
Old Town Throwdown Summer Stampede	114	SER	FEC	HoS
Oslohammer #12	21	KBZ	SKA	BoK	DoK
Ottawa Gaming Convention AOS Champs	18	CoS	SER	SoB
Palm Springs Classic – Sigmar GT	42	SER	HoS	SKA	DoK
PHOGAPALOOZA	24	SoB	SCE	StD
Realmgate Clash GT	12	OBR	SKA	BoK
Realmgate Warriors: Grotmas in July GT	13	DOK	IJZ	SER
Realms 10	12	HoS	BoK	SER	SCE
Realms 11	12	BoK	SER	StD
Realmshift Series 2026 – Chapter 2	38	CoS	DoT	StD
Republic At War	18	FEC	GG	StD
Rose City Rampage 4: To the Rextreme	30	GG	HoH	DoT
Sagahammer 2026	15	CoS	KO	CoS
Siege of York IV	22	FYR	OM	DoK	SKA
simit smash Ⅱ	8	CoS	SCE	KBZ
Southeastern Slaughter, Battles and BBQ	11	GG	StD	LRL
Stirling AOS Muster -S.A.M	20	IJZ	IDK	DoT
Summer Slaughter: Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament	37	CoS	SYL	CoS
Southeastern Slaughter, Battles and BBQ	11	GG	StD	LRL
Tales in the Wood XV	49	DoT	MoN	SBGL
TEO Age of Sigmar – Showdown	10	DoK	SBGL	SoB
The Salt City GT Age of Sigmar	11	DoK	HoS	SYL
The Utah Cup 2026 – Age of Sigmar	27	HoS	MoN	BoK
Threshold Invitational XIII	19	DoT	LRL	SYL
Vantastic GT Year 3	9	MoN	OM	SBGL
Warzone Southern Fried Sigmar GT	36	SBGL	LRL	OM	IJZ

SOURCES
Best Coast Pairings
Tabletop Herald
Milarki
Championshub.app
MiniHeadQuarters
Ecksen
Longshanks

Welcome to the new-look stats article!

There are a few changes this week, so I should probably explain myself first!

Firstly, we no longer have the traditional win-rate chart. This has been replaced by the new Faction Meta Dashboard.

The reason is to move away from treating win rates as the sacred word when it comes to balance. I’ve been saying for a while now that win rates only scrape the surface. They’re useful, but we need to dig deeper to understand how those figures are being produced.

With that in mind, the Dashboard now shows the number of players and games behind each faction’s win rate, which we’re now calling the Observed Win Rate. Next to that, you’ll see the percentage of GT runs which resulted in four or more wins across the first five rounds of events.

On either side of the Observed Win Rate are two columns marked Lower and Upper. These represent the 95% confidence interval around that result. In simple terms, they’re the range within which we think the faction’s underlying win rate is likely to sit. Factions with fewer recorded games will have a much wider range, while those with hundreds of games will give us more confidence.

Recent Form

You’ll also see a new Recent Form section. We’re comparing a faction’s most recent 200 games with its opening 200 games of the current Battlescroll. To avoid overlapping samples, we only make this comparison once a faction has recorded more than 400 games.

This gives us another way of looking at the meta. Rather than asking “How has this faction performed across the whole Battlescroll?”, we can ask “Is it still performing that way now?”

That’s already producing some interesting results, which we’ll come to later.

Skill-Adjusted Win Rates

Last, we come to probably the most interesting part of the Dashboard, for me at least. The Skill-Adjusted Analysis attempts to separate faction performance from the skill and experience of the players using it.

Using WoElo, we can estimate how likely each player was to win each individual game based solely on the WoElo of themselves and their opponent. At this stage, we’re deliberately ignoring which factions either player brought.

Take Hedonites of Slaanesh as an example. Their players have an average WoElo of 480.9, and based on the individual match-ups those players encountered during this battlescroll, we would have expected them to win approximately 55% of their games even before looking at anything to do with Factions, Formations or lists.

Their Observed Win Rate was 58%. Once we account for that player-strength advantage, our current Skill-Adjusted Faction Win Rate estimate is 52%.

That doesn’t mean Hedonites really have a 52% win rate. The 58% is what actually happened. Instead, the adjusted figure is our attempt to answer a slightly different:

How much of that performance comes from the faction, rather than the players using it?

Battle Formations

We’ve also introduced a dedicated Battle Formation Meta Table.

This works in the same way as the Faction Dashboard, showing the number of players and games recorded for each formation, its usage within the faction, 4+ win finishes, Observed Win Rate and the 95% confidence interval around that result.

We then apply the same player-skill analysis to produce a Skill-Adjusted Formation Win Rate.

I think this is important because a faction sitting comfortably at 50% doesn’t mean every way of building that army is balanced. One formation might be outperforming while another struggles, with the two averaging out into what could be seen as a healthy faction result.

The Charts

We’ve retained our two player population charts, showing the number and percentage of players within each WoElo bracket. These provide some useful context for the Dashboard by showing just how differently the player populations of each faction are distributed.

We’ve also kept the Fabien Chart, showing what percentage of players finished their GT runs with 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4+ wins. Averages are useful, but sometimes it’s much more informative to see what actually happened to the people who took an army to an event.

Finally, we have one new chart, Observed vs Skill-Adjusted Faction Win Rate. Blue represents the Observed Win Rate and orange represents our estimate after taking into account player WoElo.

The line between them is where some of the interesting stories in the data live. If a faction moves substantially down after adjustment, we have evidence that a strong player population may be helping its results. If it moves upwards, its players may actually be underperforming.

And with all that explanation out of the way, we can finally get onto what the numbers are actually telling us this week…

Faction Dashboard Analysis

With the boring explanations out of the way, let’s get into the good stuff.

Hedonites of Slaanesh

Hedonites are sitting pretty with 58%, but there’s more being that. Hedonites have the highest Observed Win Rate in the game, and that 58% comes out of 350 games. That would be where most people stop, they’re three percentage points above the traditional 45-55% window, and 30% of their completed GT runs have resulted in four or more wins, which is also the highest in our data.

But Hedonites players also have an average WoElo of 480.9, the highest of any faction. Looking at the individual opponents they’ve faced, we’d have expected these players to win around 55% of their games based on their ratings alone. Their skill-adjusted estimate falls from 58% to 52% which is the largest downward adjustment on the table.

It doesn’t mean Hedonites are a 52% faction, or that there’s nothin to worry about. But what it tells us is that Hedonites raw results are going with a very strong player population.

Fyreslayers

Fyreslayers are 57% from 223 games. But unlike Hedonites, adjusting for the player strength doesn’t make that performance disappear.

Fyreslayers players have averaged out at 448.2 WoElo, with their match-ups giving them a player-skill baseline of roughly 51%, this has meant their skill-adjusted win rate remains at around 54%.

So we have two factions with similar headline results:

Hedonites: 58% falling to 52% adjusted
Fyreslayers: 57% falling to 54% adjusted

It would arguably mean that the Fyreslayers are the more interesting faction to watch. But, Fyreslayers only have 223 games recorded which means the confidence interval is quite wide at between 51-64%.

They’re also having 21% of their players achieve 4+ wins compared to Hedonites 30%.

Cities of Sigmar

Cities have 720 games from 145 players on record, with an Observed Win Rate of 56%. Their confidence interval is narrower at 53-60%, and 29% of their players reach four or more wins.

Cities opening 200 games had an Observed Win Rate of 58% which has fallen to 54% across the most recent 200 games.

Their WoElo is good, averaging at 454.1, but even taking that into account their skill-adjusted win rate is still 55%. But there’s even more behind this when we get to the Formation dashboard.

Daughters of Khaine

Their overall Observed Win Rate is 56%, but their most recent 200 games have reached 58%, up 4.8 percentage points compared with their opening 200.

Their average WoElo is a tough 465.8 and their expected player performance was around 52%, which brings their adjusted down to 53%.

Gloomspite Gitz

At the other end of the table we have the Gitz. They’ve won 45% of their 519 games this battlescroll, and their latest 200 games is sitting at just 38%. Unlike some of the other factions, player strength doesn’t seem to explain this one. Gitz players have an average WoElo of 404.0 and a player-skill baseline of 49%. Our adjusted win rate only goes up to 47%.

Something has changed recently, it could be anything between the players, builds, match-ups or simply the wider meta adapting to Gitz.

Ogor Mawtribes

The new Ogor Mawtribes have been getting a lot of attention recently and have an awful lookin 38% Observed Win Rate. But that is only based on 89 games across 19 players, Their confidence interval is a massive 28-48%, and their skill-adjusted estimates climbs to 44%.

This does suggest the Ogors performance could be partly down to the skill and experience of the players using faction. But we don’t have enough data yet.

Formation Analysis

Lumineth Realm-lords

Aelementor Guardians are leading the way. Sitting with a whopping 61% Observed Win Rate across 124 games and 35% of their players achieving four wins or more.

Player strength accounts for some of that with Aelementor players having an average WoElo of 474.9 with a player baseline of 52%. But even taking this into account, the formation still has an adjusted win rate of 55%.

Cities of Sigmar

Cities’ Zealous Hordes are more of a concern. With 284 games from 59 players. It has a 60% Observed Win Rate and a 31% 4+ success rate. Their average WoElo is 473.6 and after taking in the player skill, we would still expect Zealous Hordes to hit around 57%. Compare that to the other formations:

Formation	Observed Win Rate	Adjusted Win Rate
Zealous Hordes	60%	57%
Stalwart Guardians	53%	51%
Swift Reinforcements	48%	50%

Zealous Hordes seems to be doing the heavy lifting in the Cities Observed Win Rate.

Hedonites of Slaanesh

With Hedonites, Depraved Carnival are used in 75% of their games. They have 58% across 261 games, which is pretty much the same as the Hedonites overall figures.

But again, their player base is strong at 483.2, and their players were expected to win 54% of the time regardless of faction. Their estimated win rate falls to 53%.

Sylvaneth

Sylvaneth have two Formations that are giving us some interest. The Faction overall has 53%, but their Formation Lords of the Clan has 56% over its 241 games and an adjusted win rate of 56%. Their players have a modest WoElo of 413.9 and an expected win rate regardless of Factions at 47%. Meanwhile Glade Defenders sits at 51% observed and 51% adjusted across 319 games.

Interesting because Lords of the Clan isn’t producing good results because of a high skill player base. Its players are outperforming what we’d expect from their ratings.

Blades of Khorne

Khorne aren’t particularly alarming at 50% Observed and 53% Adjusted. But Murderhost is currently at 52% Observed and 54% Adjusted, while Khornate Legion sits at 51% and 52%. Northing scary there.

But what’s interesting is that both improve after player adjustment. Murderhost players have a baseline expectation of only 46% yet won 52% of their games.

Kharadron Overlords

The Endrineers Guild Expeditionary Force makes a jump from 44% observed to 50% adjusted. Their average WoElo is just 351.6 which is incredibly low.

I’m not claiming they secretly balanced, but its difficult to look at the 44% without looking at who’s piloting the army in those games.

Popularity Analysis

Disciples of Tzeentch have one of the strongest populations in the game, around 34% of their players are rated 500+ WoElo, including 6% above 700. Daughters of Khaine aren’t far behind, with 38% at 500+.

That helps put some of their results into context. Both factions are performing well, but they’re also attracting considerably stronger-than-average players.

At the opposite end sit factions such as Kharadron Overlords, where around 60% of players are below 400 WoElo, and only around 9% are currently above 500.

Skaven and Gloomspite also have particularly large sub-400 populations at 56% apiece.

This doesn’t tell us why. It could be that those factions attract less experienced players, that experienced players have moved away from them, or as was raised in our Discord this week, that repeatedly playing a struggling army may itself suppress a player’s WoElo.

That’s something we’re going to look at, and not pretend we’ve already got the answer.

Win Analysis

This remains one of my favourite charts because it translates abstract win rates into something much more tangible. If I take this faction to a GT, what sorts of records are people actually coming home with?

At the top, 30% of Hedonites runs reach four or more wins, followed closely by Cities at 29% and Daughters of Khaine at 27%.

But the rest matters too. For Hedonites, another 32% finish on three wins. That means roughly six in ten Hedonites GT runs are currently finishing with at least three wins from the five rounds we’re measuring.
Compare that with Stormcast Eternals. Only 10% reach four wins, while 31% finish 3-2, 27% finish 2-3, 19% manage one win and 12% go winless.

And then there are Ogors. None of the 19 recorded Ogor players have yet reached four wins, while 48% finished with either zero or one win. The sample is tiny, as we’ve already discussed, but that’s still rather grim.

Accounting for Player Strength

This helps us see more clearly what I’ve been talking about this week. When we account for players strength some factions barely move at all while others move massively.

Hedonites fall from 58% to 52%, and Daughters from 56% to 53%. At the opposite end we can see that Kharadron rise 46% to 50% and Ogors go from 38% to 44%.

This is not intended to show any “real” win rate. WoElo and faction performance aren’t independent. A player repeatedly winning with a strong army will increase their WoElo, and someone sticking with an underperforming faction could see theirs fall. But we’ll look into refining this as we get more data.

Think of this as answering: “How did this faction perform compared with what we’d have expected from the previous performance of the players involved?”

Woehammer Database

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