Disclaimer
The data contained inside this article is only Woehammer’s interpretation. There are differing methods and analyses of the data available from Games Workshop and Honest Wargamer, whose methodology differs slightly from our own.
All of these sources should be viewed as a collective whole to allow you to gather a larger picture of the Age of Sigmar meta. The win rates, while accurate for events we have on record so far, are likely to change in the coming weeks and shouldn’t be the single point of reference for a factions strength.
How Win Rates are Calculated
All of our data for GTs are pulled from Best Coast Pairings, Stats & Ladders, and Ecksen for two day, 2000 point single events. Everything else we draw data on is shown in the RTT/Casual data. GT and RTT data are shown together in the combined data. We split all draws between the wins and losses of a faction evenly, as we believe this provides a fair reflection of a factions win rate. For example, as a player, you may achieve 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw at an event. Some sites will only count the wins towards the faction rate, so in this case, 40% (2/5=0.4). Woehammer includes half of the draws, so our result would be 50% (2.5/5=0.5).
While the faction win rate may state one figure, it is more than likely to have evolved during the course of the Battlescroll as players find hidden gems within their battletomes. These are then copied by other players or answers found to these by others.
Faction Win Rates
The above chart shows the combined data (all events) currently hosted on Best Coast Pairings, Stats & Ladders, and Ecksen. This chart would be the most similar in data to Games Workshops’ own metawatch articles.
The value in brackets shows the number of matches featuring that faction (excluding mirror matches) the data is based on.
The above chart shows the same information for single player, 2000 point, 5 or more round events. This would be considered the more competitive view, with players often doing their utmost to optimise lists for these events.
The above shows the results for events that aren’t classified as a GT. So this would include RTTs, doubles, teams, and everything else in between.
Win Rates
I thought it may be interesting to also view the win rates by month during the battlescroll. This allows us to see the effect of new Ironjawz or the like on their particular faction. Or it may show whether armies with high win rates are being adapted to by their opposition.
Subfaction and Army of Renown Win Rates
No subfaction data yet, as the sample sizes are too small.
Player Results by Wins
This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly, it shows the faction popularity by the number of players, and secondly, it breaks down those players’ results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.
Faction Popularity
The full list month-by-month is below:
When looking at the above table, bear in mind that this is the worldwide meta, and region to region or even city to city may differ. So while this gives us a general idea of the meta it may not be representative of your local meta.
We’re seeing (as always) a massive spike in the player base of the new tomes that have been released and fall off on the older Tomes. This is to be expected really as competitive players jump around following the “Oooo shiny” method of collecting. They’ll likely always be a strong base for Stormcast Eternals, thanks to them appearing in nearly all beginner army sets, as magazine collections and the feature of many stories in Age of Sigmar.
Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from
Out of all the players using that faction (shown in brackets next to the faction name), this graph shows the number achieving a whitewash at a GT with 5 wins from 5. Those achieving 4 wins from 4 after the fourth round and those achieving 3 wins from 3 after the 3rd round. Take into account that those who achieve 5-0 are included in the numbers of 4 wins from 4 and 3 wins from 3. Likewise, those achieving 4 from 4 are included with the 3 from 3 data.
We’ve also shown the percentage of players managing to achieve more wins than losses at a GT event.
Players with 4+ Wins
The above has been sorted to show the number of players achieving 4 or more wins with their faction.
Faction Pairings
The above shows the win rate for factions against the others currently in the game. Reading this chart, you’ll need to view it as the vertical column (green) against the horizontal row and then cross reference these.
Battleplans
We’ve gathered data on Battleplans where players have informed us of which were used at events.
The above shows how many events each battleplan was used in. This, therefore, shows how popular battleplans are with TOs.
The above chart shows each factions win rate on the relevant battleplan. This can be useful for some TOs if the wish to give a leading faction or a popular faction at their event a challenge.
Conclusions
If you’re planning your list for a GT, look at the data as a whole. Don’t just look at our data either, look at TSN and also GW. Get a big picture, use these sites as sources to make your own informed opinion on the meta. Think about which armies are popular, as you’ll likely face at least one or two of these armies at some point during an event, especially in the earlier rounds.
Look at those factions that are regularly in a tournament winning position and winning GTs, as these are likely to be your opponents in the later rounds. I believe you should look at building a list that is able to cope with playing the following factions at some point in a GT if you’re looking to compete;
- Blades of Khorne
- Stormcast Eternals
- Kharadron Overlords
- Soulblight Gravelords
- Hedonites of Slaanesh
- Nighthaunt(!?)
But also, if you’re playing a local GT with your club, then bear in mind that meta may be completely different to those given in the stats above. All of what is presented here, should be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully it gives you some guidance when it comes to list construction, or even army choice if you’re looking to play Age of Sigmar.
Running 8 Week Average Win Rate Since May 2022
For a bit of fun
