Let me caveat this whole article by saying, this is my best guess at their parameters. I am by no means saying these are the parameters that GW uses. However, they’re fairly close.
Firstly, let’s take a look at the latest Metawatch table:
Credit: Warhammer Cummunity
Luckily, with our new system of obtaining data, we can now attempt to replicate what GW draws down for its data. To do so, we had to use snippets of information that we’ve gleaned from both this, and past articles.
Firstly, we know that they are obtaining their data from Best Coast Pairings (BCP), and now Stats and Ladders (based on the most recent article).
We know that the data covered the previous 60 days. Therefore using the date in the bottom of their table as a guide we worked this back to the 4th January, give or take a day based on the date given.
What did that mean? Well we pulled the same data, and deleted the additional we get now from Ecksen to match GW’s smaller sample size 😉
I then worked throught this database and began excluding certain parameters I thought GW would. With each change I compared the stats to their data and then made the next change.
It was a long process….
So what did I include and exclude?
We excluded Ecksen as GW does not draw data from this site.
We then made the assumption that GW would also count draws as 0.5 of a win and 0.5 of a draw.
Excluded matches where the opponent had no army list or faction included.
Included mirror matches!!!!
Included team events
Included double events!!!!
Included all points sized games.
Excluded online events using TTS
The result based on the above, is the closest I can get to match their data. By closest, I mean all bar 2 of the factions are 0-1% different. Apart from Lumineth Realm-Lords who are 3% different and Ironjawz who are 2% different.
If we change any of those factors above we get at least two more factions that are more 2% or more different to GW.
Again, this isn’t saying this is their parameters, just the closes that I can get the database to match their stats. Would GW rally include mirror matches? Possibly, as it reflects the popularity of the faction within the customer base. Would GW include doubles events where armies are made up of two factions? I doubt it, but as I say, excluding these takes me further away from their data.
On to the table!
As always, the figure in brckets denotes the number of games in our sample database.
We’ve tried to show the two stat bars side by side. Metawatch in red (they seem to like red) and ours in yellow.
Of these factions, I have managed to have 11 match and a further 13 within 1%, which could be due to rounding somewhere.
Whats going on with Lumineth and Ironjawz? I have no idea. But whether I exclude smaller points tournaments, excluded mirror matches, exclude doubles tournaments or team tournaments, or combinations of these, the variance for these two factions never gets any closer and in doing so makes others worse.
My only other guess, is that perhaps GWs data includes some other source, perhaps events held at their Warhammer World venue, that isn’t included on BCP or Stats and Ladders.
Any, way I’m done looking at this for now. But, I’ll probably have another crack next week and also share the database when I do.
The data contained inside this article is only Woehammer’s interpretation. There are differing methods and analyses of the data available from Games Workshop and Honest Wargamer, whose methodology differs slightly from our own.
All of these sources should be viewed as a collective whole to allow you to gather a larger picture of the Age of Sigmar meta. The win rates, while accurate for events we have on record so far, are likely to change in the coming weeks and shouldn’t be the single point of reference for a factions strength.
How Win Rates are Calculated
All of our data is pulled from two day single events. We split all draws between the wins and losses of a faction evenly, as we believe this provides a fair reflection of a factions win rate. For example, as a player, you may achieve 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw at an event. Some sites will only count the wins towards the faction rate, so in this case, 40% (2/5=0.4). Woehammer includes half of the draws, so our result would be 50% (2.5/5=0.5).
Faction Win Rates
With our new data gathering system, we are able to draw data automatically from tournament organiser websites in the same manner that Games Workshop does. At the moment, we’ve drawn all the data for all Age of Sigmar events on Best Coast Pairings.
Stats and Ladders will be added later this week, along with TourneyKeeper. Further websites will also be added in the future.
All of this work has been carried out by the amazing Aida (thank you!).
When viewing our database, please be aware that we have removed all the player lists. We felt it unethical to publish these and allow people a way to circumnavigate BCPs income stream. If this upsets you, I apologise, but this will remain the case in the future.
However, if you do wish to see the lists. You can run this tool yourself from Github. To do so, you’ll need a Best Coast Pairings subscription and GPT credits.
Win Rates
It’s interesting to see such a difference between the GT results and RTT/Casual games.
For example, Hedonites of Slaanesh are shown with a win rate of 43% in the GT setting. However, when you look ar RTT/Casual results, this jumps to 54%.
Subfaction and Army of Renown Win Rates
Hopefully I’ll have the information ready for this next week.
Player Results by Wins
This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly, it shows the faction popularity by the number of players, and secondly, it breaks down those players’ results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.
Here, we’ve included all the factions that have been played to date, as there is no benefit in removing those with a small sample size.
Remember, at present, this is Best Coast Pairings only.
Faction Popularity
The full list month-by-month is below:
When looking at the above table, bear in mind that this is the worldwide meta, and region to region or even city to city may differ. So while this gives us a general idea of the meta it may not be representative of your local meta.
We’re seeing (as always) a massive spike in the player base of the new tomes that have been released and fall off on the older Tomes. This is to be expected really as competitive players jump around following the “Oooo shiny” method of collecting. They’ll likely always be a strong base for Stormcast Eternals, thanks to them appearing in nearly all beginner army sets, as magazine collections and the feature of many stories in Age of Sigmar.
Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from
Out of all the players using that faction (shown in brackets next to the faction name), this graph shows the number achieving a whitewash at a GT with 5 wins from 5. Those achieving 4 wins from 4 after the fourth round and those achieving 3 wins from 3 after the 3rd round. Take into account that those who achieve 5-0 are included in the numbers of 4 wins from 4 and 3 wins from 3. Likewise, those achieving 4 from 4 are included with the 3 from 3 data.
Results Split
This chart tells you which factions are more capable of achieving positive results at tournaments.
Conclusions
If you’re planning your list for a GT, look at the data as a whole. Don’t just look at our data either, look at TSN and also GW. Get a big picture, use these sites as sources to make your own informed opinion on the meta. Think about which armies are popular, as you’ll likely face at least one or two of these armies at some point during an event, especially in the earlier rounds.
Look at those factions that are regularly in a tournament winning position and winning GTs, as these are likely to be your opponents in the later rounds. I believe you should look at building a list that is able to cope with playing the following factions at some point in a GT if you’re looking to compete;
Blades of Khorne
Seraphon
Stormcast Eternals
Soulblight Gravelords
Gloomspite Gitz
But also, if you’re playing a local GT with your club, then bear in mind that meta may be completely different to those given in the stats above. All of what is presented here, should be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully it gives you some guidance when it comes to list construction, or even army choice if you’re looking to play Age of Sigmar.
The data contained inside this article is only Woehammer’s interpretation. There are differing methods and analyses of the data available from Games Workshop and Honest Wargamer, whose methodology differs slightly from our own.
All of these sources should be viewed as a collective whole to allow you to gather a larger picture of the Age of Sigmar meta. The win rates, while accurate for events we have on record so far, are likely to change in the coming weeks and shouldn’t be the single point of reference for a factions strength.
How Win Rates are Calculated
All of our data is pulled from two day single events. We split all draws between the wins and losses of a faction evenly, as we believe this provides a fair reflection of a factions win rate. For example, as a player, you may achieve 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw at an event. Some sites will only count the wins towards the faction rate, so in this case, 40% (2/5=0.4). Woehammer includes half of the draws, so our result would be 50% (2.5/5=0.5).
We have also included a confidence interval based on the sample size and their results. This interval has a 95% confidence rate. What does this mean? Essentially, we’re 95% sure that the win rate of the faction will fall inside this band at the release of the next battlescroll.
We have decided to include this as each factions win rates can (and will) fluctuate as more and more players post their results. While the faction win rate may be that specified right now, it is more than likely to change in the future. So when looking at a win rate, take into account the number of players who have posted results, as well as the upper and lower limit of that 95% confidence interval. This will give a good indication of the future win rate of that faction.
Event Submission
If you have organised an event that doesn’t appear in our database and has the following minimum requirements to be included:
Two Day Event
Singles Event
Minimum of 8 players
Then why not complete the form attached and send the results to thewoehammer@gmail.com? We’ll include them the next time we produce the stats.
Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament 2023 by Dragonforge & Wartilyo
2D6 Carnage
Sir GT’s-A-Lot
Coventry AoS GT
Farmhammer Brewdog
King Cheese GT
Flying Monkey Con 2023
TM Gaming
Wappler Harvest Gathering
Crucible 2023
North China Open
Mowan Autumn Championship 2023
AoS Champs at the 2023 Michigan GT
Sovereign Smash 2023
Symposium SELWG
Justice Series GT
Fantasia Fanatic XLIV AoS
GAF Jamboree
Suge & Dice Annual AoS Tournament
SoCal Open
Duckstravaganza 2: Battle for the Pond
I. Lay Low the Tyrants Grand Tournament
Malmo Wargaming Weekend 7
Realmgate Rumble
Grudgefest GT 2023
Tetsworth’s War and Treachery (T.W.A.T)
Magical Dominance Saigon Warhammer Age of Sigmar GT
Slambo GT
Realm of Geddon BSK 40
Threshold Invitational II
Battle of the Bend
PNW Masters 2023
Gitz go to War(fare) 2023
Faction Win Rates
As we have now included a confidence interval within our data based on the sample size and results, we have now included all factions within the below tables regardless of their player base.
Soulblight Gravelords and Ossiarch Bonereaper nerfs appear to have worked at first glance, but the Kharadron Overlords who were possibly being held back a little in the last battlescroll have probably benefitted from this power vacuum and find themselves in the top spot.
The Kruleboyz appear to have been put back in their box down at 44% .
Win Rates
You’ll see in the chart above that each faction shows its current win rate as a % inside a text box. The paler green and yellow segments show the margin of error of that win rate. We predict with 95% confidence that the win rate will be within the paler bars upon the release of the next battlescroll. The size of this segment is determined by the number of tournament entries using that faction, the spread of their win rates at competitions and finally how many weeks are estimated to be left until the next battlescroll update.
Using our old format of win rate reporting and removing factions with less than 20 results, we have the following table:
I thought it may be interesting to also view the win rates by month during the battlescroll. This may allow us to see the effect of new Ironjawz or the like on their particular faction. Or it may show whether armies with high win rates are being adapted to by their opposition.
Subfaction and Army of Renown Win Rates
We’ve started having subfactions hit the 20 player min representation, so have taken those factions for the chart above.
ARMIES OF RENOWN
I’ve decided to have a little chart recording their progress as the Battlescroll progresses, they may well track against their own faction as a whole, but I though it would be interesting to see nonetheless.
Player Results by Wins
This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly, it shows the faction popularity by the number of players, and secondly, it breaks down those players’ results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.
Here, we’ve included all the factions that have been played to date, as there is no benefit in removing those with a small sample size.
Faction Popularity
The full list month-by-month is below:
When looking at the above table, bear in mind that this is the worldwide meta, and region to region or even city to city may differ. So while this gives us a general idea of the meta it may not be representative of your local meta.
We’re seeing (as always) a massive spike in the player base of the new tomes that have been released and fall off on the older Tomes. This is to be expected really as competitive players jump around following the “Oooo shiny” method of collecting. They’ll likely always be a strong base for Stormcast Eternals, thanks to them appearing in nearly all beginner army sets, as magazine collections and the feature of many stories in Age of Sigmar.
Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from
Out of all the players using that faction (shown in brackets next to the faction name), this graph shows the number achieving a whitewash at a GT with 5 wins from 5. Those achieving 4 wins from 4 after the fourth round and those achieving 3 wins from 3 after the 3rd round. Take into account that those who achieve 5-0 are included in the numbers of 4 wins from 4 and 3 wins from 3. Likewise, those achieving 4 from 4 are included with the 3 from 3 data.
Results Split
This chart tells you which factions are more capable of achieving positive results at tournaments.
Conclusions
If you’re planning your list for a GT, look at the data as a whole. Don’t just look at our data either, look at TSN and also GW. Get a big picture, use these sites as sources to make your own informed opinion on the meta. Think about which armies are popular, as you’ll likely face at least one or two of these armies at some point during an event, especially in the earlier rounds.
Look at those factions that are regularly in a tournament winning position and winning GTs, as these are likely to be your opponents in the later rounds. I believe you should look at building a list that is able to cope with playing the following factions at some point in a GT if you’re looking to compete;
Blades of Khorne
Seraphon
Stormcast Eternals
Soulblight Gravelords
Gloomspite Gitz
But also, if you’re playing a local GT with your club, then bear in mind that meta may be completely different to those given in the stats above. All of what is presented here, should be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully it gives you some guidance when it comes to list construction, or even army choice if you’re looking to play Age of Sigmar.
The data contained inside this article is only Woehammer’s interpretation. There are differing methods and analyses of the data available from Games Workshop and Honest Wargamer, whose methodology differs slightly from our own.
All of these sources should be viewed as a collective whole to allow you to gather a larger picture of the Age of Sigmar meta. The win rates, while accurate for events we have on record so far, are likely to change in the coming weeks and shouldn’t be the single point of reference for a factions strength.
How Win Rates are Calculated
All of our data is pulled from two day single events. We split all draws between the wins and losses of a faction evenly, as we believe this provides a fair reflection of a factions win rate. For example, as a player, you may achieve 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw at an event. Some sites will only count the wins towards the faction rate, so in this case, 40% (2/5=0.4). Woehammer includes half of the draws, so our result would be 50% (2.5/5=0.5).
We have also included a confidence interval based on the sample size and their results. This interval has a 95% confidence rate. What does this mean? Essentially, we’re 95% sure that the win rate of the faction will fall inside this band at the release of the next battlescroll.
We have decided to include this as each factions win rates can (and will) fluctuate as more and more players post their results. While the faction win rate may be that specified right now, it is more than likely to change in the future. So when looking at a win rate, take into account the number of players who have posted results, as well as the upper and lower limit of that 95% confidence interval. This will give a good indication of the future win rate of that faction.
Event Submission
If you have organised an event that doesn’t appear in our database and has the following minimum requirements to be included:
Two Day Event
Singles Event
Minimum of 8 players
Then why not complete the form attached and send the results to thewoehammer@gmail.com? We’ll include them the next time we produce the stats.
Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament 2023 by Dragonforge & Wartilyo
King Cheese GT
Flying Monkey Con 2023
TM Gaming
Wappler Harvest Gathering
Crucible 2023
North China Open
Mowan Autumn Championship 2023
AoS Champs at the 2023 Michigan GT
Sovereign Smash 2023
Symposium SELWG
Justice Series GT
Fantasia Fanatic XLIV AoS
GAF Jamboree
Suge & Dice Annual AoS Tournament
SoCal Open
Duckstravaganza 2: Battle for the Pond
I. Lay Low the Tyrants Grand Tournament
Malmo Wargaming Weekend 7
Realmgate Rumble
Grudgefest GT 2023
Tetsworth’s War and Treachery (T.W.A.T)
Magical Dominance Saigon Warhammer Age of Sigmar GT
Slambo GT
Realm of Geddon BSK 40
Threshold Invitational II
Faction Win Rates
As we have now included a confidence interval within our data based on the sample size and results, we have now included all factions within the below tables regardless of their player base.
Soulblight Gravelords and Ossiarch Bonereaper nerfs appear to have worked at first glance, but the Kharadron Overlords who were possibly being held back a little in the last battlescroll have probably benefitted from this power vacuum and find themselves in the top spot.
The Kruleboyz appear to have been put back in their box down at 44% .
Win Rates
You’ll see in the chart above that each faction shows its current win rate as a % inside a text box. The paler green and yellow segments show the margin of error of that win rate. We predict with 95% confidence that the win rate will be within the paler bars upon the release of the next battlescroll. The size of this segment is determined by the number of tournament entries using that faction, the spread of their win rates at competitions and finally how many weeks are estimated to be left until the next battlescroll update.
Using our old format of win rate reporting and removing factions with less than 20 results, we have the following table:
I thought it may be interesting to also view the win rates by month during the battlescroll. This may allow us to see the effect of new Ironjawz or the like on their particular faction. Or it may show whether armies with high win rates are being adapted to by their opposition.
Subfaction and Army of Renown Win Rates
We’ve started having subfactions hit the 20 player min representation, so have taken those factions for the chart above.
ARMIES OF RENOWN
I’ve decided to have a little chart recording their progress as the Battlescroll progresses, they may well track against their own faction as a whole, but I though it would be interesting to see nonetheless.
Player Results by Wins
This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly, it shows the faction popularity by the number of players, and secondly, it breaks down those players’ results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.
Here, we’ve included all the factions that have been played to date, as there is no benefit in removing those with a small sample size.
Faction Popularity
The full list month-by-month is below:
When looking at the above table, bear in mind that this is the worldwide meta, and region to region or even city to city may differ. So while this gives us a general idea of the meta it may not be representative of your local meta.
We’re seeing (as always) a massive spike in the player base of the new tomes that have been released and fall off on the older Tomes. This is to be expected really as competitive players jump around following the “Oooo shiny” method of collecting. They’ll likely always be a strong base for Stormcast Eternals, thanks to them appearing in nearly all beginner army sets, as magazine collections and the feature of many stories in Age of Sigmar.
Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from
Out of all the players using that faction (shown in brackets next to the faction name), this graph shows the number achieving a whitewash at a GT with 5 wins from 5. Those achieving 4 wins from 4 after the fourth round and those achieving 3 wins from 3 after the 3rd round. Take into account that those who achieve 5-0 are included in the numbers of 4 wins from 4 and 3 wins from 3. Likewise, those achieving 4 from 4 are included with the 3 from 3 data.
Results Split
This chart tells you which factions are more capable of achieving positive results at tournaments.
Conclusions
If you’re planning your list for a GT, look at the data as a whole. Don’t just look at our data either, look at TSN and also GW. Get a big picture, use these sites as sources to make your own informed opinion on the meta. Think about which armies are popular, as you’ll likely face at least one or two of these armies at some point during an event, especially in the earlier rounds.
Look at those factions that are regularly in a tournament winning position and winning GTs, as these are likely to be your opponents in the later rounds. I believe you should look at building a list that is able to cope with playing the following factions at some point in a GT if you’re looking to compete;
Blades of Khorne
Seraphon
Stormcast Eternals
Soulblight Gravelords
Gloomspite Gitz
But also, if you’re playing a local GT with your club, then bear in mind that meta may be completely different to those given in the stats above. All of what is presented here, should be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully it gives you some guidance when it comes to list construction, or even army choice if you’re looking to play Age of Sigmar.
The data contained inside this article is only Woehammer’s interpretation. There are differing methods and analyses of the data available from Games Workshop and Honest Wargamer, whose methodology differs slightly from our own.
All of these sources should be viewed as a collective whole to allow you to gather a larger picture of the Age of Sigmar meta. The win rates, while accurate for events we have on record so far, are likely to change in the coming weeks and shouldn’t be the single point of reference for a factions strength.
How Win Rates are Calculated
All of our data is pulled from two day single events. We split all draws between the wins and losses of a faction evenly, as we believe this provides a fair reflection of a factions win rate. For example, as a player, you may achieve 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw at an event. Some sites will only count the wins towards the faction rate, so in this case, 40% (2/5=0.4). Woehammer includes half of the draws, so our result would be 50% (2.5/5=0.5).
We have also included a confidence interval based on the sample size and their results. This interval has a 95% confidence rate. What does this mean? Essentially, we’re 95% sure that the win rate of the faction will fall inside this band at the release of the next battlescroll.
We have decided to include this as each factions win rates can (and will) fluctuate as more and more players post their results. While the faction win rate may be that specified right now, it is more than likely to change in the future. So when looking at a win rate, take into account the number of players who have posted results, as well as the upper and lower limit of that 95% confidence interval. This will give a good indication of the future win rate of that faction.
Event Submission
If you have organised an event that doesn’t appear in our database and has the following minimum requirements to be included:
Two Day Event
Singles Event
Minimum of 8 players
Then why not complete the form attached and send the results to thewoehammer@gmail.com? We’ll include them the next time we produce the stats.
As we have now included a confidence interval within our data based on the sample size and results, we have now included all factions within the below tables regardless of their player base.
Soulblight Gravelords and Ossiarch Bonereaper nerfs appear to have worked at first glance, but the Kharadron Overlords who were possibly being held back a little in the last battlescroll have probably benefitted from this power vacuum and find themselves in the top spot.
The heavy handed approach on the balancing of Hedonites of Slaanesh is showing with their win rate falling to a miserable 43% this week.
Win Rates
You’ll see in the chart above that each faction shows its current win rate as a % inside a text box. The paler green and yellow segments show the margin of error of that win rate. We predict with 95% confidence that the win rate will be within the paler bars upon the release of the next battlescroll. The size of this segment is determined by the number of tournament entries using that faction, the spread of their win rates at competitions and finally how many weeks are estimated to be left until the next battlescroll update.
Using our old format of win rate reporting and removing factions with less than 20 results, we have the following table:
I thought it may be interesting to also view the win rates by month during the battlescroll. This may allow us to see the effect of new Ironjawz or the like on their particular faction. Or it may show whether armies with high win rates are being adapted to by their opposition.
Subfaction and Army of Renown Win Rates
We’ve started having subfactions hit the 20 player min representation, so have taken those factions for the chart above.
ARMIES OF RENOWN
I’ve decided to have a little chart recording their progress as the Battlescroll progresses, they may well track against their own faction as a whole, but I though it would be interesting to see nonetheless.
Player Results by Wins
This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly, it shows the faction popularity by the number of players, and secondly, it breaks down those players’ results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.
Here, we’ve included all the factions that have been played to date, as there is no benefit in removing those with a small sample size.
Faction Popularity
The full list month-by-month is below:
When looking at the above table, bear in mind that this is the worldwide meta, and region to region or even city to city may differ. So while this gives us a general idea of the meta it may not be representative of your local meta.
We’re seeing (as always) a massive spike in the player base of the new tomes that have been released and fall off on the older Tomes. This is to be expected really as competitive players jump around following the “Oooo shiny” method of collecting. They’ll likely always be a strong base for Stormcast Eternals, thanks to them appearing in nearly all beginner army sets, as magazine collections and the feature of many stories in Age of Sigmar.
Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from
Out of all the players using that faction (shown in brackets next to the faction name), this graph shows the number achieving a whitewash at a GT with 5 wins from 5. Those achieving 4 wins from 4 after the fourth round and those achieving 3 wins from 3 after the 3rd round. Take into account that those who achieve 5-0 are included in the numbers of 4 wins from 4 and 3 wins from 3. Likewise, those achieving 4 from 4 are included with the 3 from 3 data.
Results Split
This chart tells you which factions are more capable of achieving positive results at tournaments.
Conclusions
If you’re planning your list for a GT, look at the data as a whole. Don’t just look at our data either, look at TSN and also GW. Get a big picture, use these sites as sources to make your own informed opinion on the meta. Think about which armies are popular, as you’ll likely face at least one or two of these armies at some point during an event, especially in the earlier rounds.
Look at those factions that are regularly in a tournament winning position and winning GTs, as these are likely to be your opponents in the later rounds. I believe you should look at building a list that is able to cope with playing the following factions at some point in a GT if you’re looking to compete;
Blades of Khorne
Seraphon
Stormcast Eternals
Soulblight Gravelords
Gloomspite Gitz
But also, if you’re playing a local GT with your club, then bear in mind that meta may be completely different to those given in the stats above. All of what is presented here, should be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully it gives you some guidance when it comes to list construction, or even army choice if you’re looking to play Age of Sigmar.
I thought with the release of Games Workshops Meta Article yesterday, what better time to release ours than a day later? You know, jump onthe old band wagon and all that!
The data contained inside this article is only Woehammer’s interpretation. There are differing methods and analyses of the data available from Games Workshop and Honest Wargamer, whose methodology differs slightly from our own.
All of these sources should be viewed as a collective whole to allow you to gather a larger picture of the Age of Sigmar meta. The win rates, while accurate for events we have on record so far, are likely to change in the coming weeks and shouldn’t be the single point of reference for a factions strength.
How Win Rates are Calculated
All of our data is pulled from two day single events. We split all draws between the wins and losses of a faction evenly, as we believe this provides a fair reflection of a factions win rate. For example, as a player, you may achieve 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw at an event. Some sites will only count the wins towards the faction rate, so in this case, 40% (2/5=0.4). Woehammer includes half of the draws, so our result would be 50% (2.5/5=0.5).
We have also included a confidence interval based on the sample size and their results. This interval has a 95% confidence rate. What does this mean? Essentially, we’re 95% sure that the win rate of the faction will fall inside this band at the release of the next battlescroll.
We have decided to include this as each factions win rates can (and will) fluctuate as more and more players post their results. While the faction win rate may be that specified right now, it is more than likely to change in the future. So when looking at a win rate, take into account the number of players who have posted results, as well as the upper and lower limit of that 95% confidence interval. This will give a good indication of the future win rate of that faction.
Event Submission
If you have organised an event that doesn’t appear in our database and has the following minimum requirements to be included:
Two Day Event
Singles Event
Minimum of 8 players
Then why not complete the form attached and send the results to thewoehammer@gmail.com? We’ll include them the next time we produce the stats.
The above was updated on 27th October 2023 at 15:43 UTC after the donkey who created the spreadsheet didn’t press refresh on his pivot table to update this chart for the week.
As we have now included a confidence interval within our data based on the sample size and results, we have now included all factions within the below tables regardless of their player base.
Soulblight Gravelords and Ossiarch Bonereaper nerfs appear to have worked at first glance, but the Kharadron Overlords who were possibly being held back a little in the last battlescroll have probably benefitted from this power vacuum and find themselves in the top spot.
The heavy handed approached on the balancing of Hedonites of Slaanesh is showing with their win rate falling to a miserable 43% this week.
Win Rates
You’ll see in the chart above that each faction shows its current win rate as a % inside a text box. The paler green and yellow segments show the margin of error of that win rate. We predict with 95% confidence that the win rate will be within the paler bars upon the release of the next battlescroll. The size of this segment is determined by the number of tournament entries using that faction, the spread of their win rates at competitions and finally how many weeks are estimated to be left until the next battlescroll update.
Using our old format of win rate reporting and removing factions with less than 20 results, we have the following table:
Subfaction and Army of Renown Win Rates
We’ve started having subfactions hit the 20 player min representation, so have taken those factions for the chart above.
ARMIES OF RENOWN
I’ve decided to have a little chart recording their progress as the Battlescroll progresses, they may well track against their own faction as a whole, but I though it would be interesting to see nonetheless.
Player Results by Wins
This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly, it shows the faction popularity by the number of players, and secondly, it breaks down those players’ results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.
Here, we’ve included all the factions that have been played to date, as there is no benefit in removing those with a small sample size.
Faction Popularity
The full list month-by-month is below:
When looking at the above table, bear in mind that this is the worldwide meta, and region to region or even city to city may differ. So while this gives us a general idea of the meta it may not be representative of your local meta.
We’re seeing (as always) a massive spike in the player base of the new tomes that have been released and fall off on the older Tomes. This is to be expected really as competitive players jump around following the “Oooo shiny” method of collecting. They’ll likely always be a strong base for Stormcast Eternals, thanks to them appearing in nearly all beginner army sets, as magazine collections and the feature of many stories in Age of Sigmar.
Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from
Out of all the players using that faction (shown in brackets next to the faction name), this graph shows the number achieving a whitewash at a GT with 5 wins from 5. Those achieving 4 wins from 4 after the fourth round and those achieving 3 wins from 3 after the 3rd round. Take into account that those who achieve 5-0 are included in the numbers of 4 wins from 4 and 3 wins from 3. Likewise, those achieving 4 from 4 are included with the 3 from 3 data.
Results Split
This chart tells you which factions are more capable of achieving positive results at tournaments.
Conclusions
If you’re planning your list for a GT, look at the data as a whole. Don’t just look at our data either, look at TSN and also GW. Get a big picture, use these sites as sources to make your own informed opinion on the meta. Think about which armies are popular, as you’ll likely face at least one or two of these armies at some point during an event, especially in the earlier rounds.
Look at those factions that are regularly in a tournament winning position and winning GTs, as these are likely to be your opponents in the later rounds. I believe you should look at building a list that is able to cope with playing the following factions at some point in a GT if you’re looking to compete;
Blades of Khorne
Seraphon
Stormcast Eternals
Soulblight Gravelords
Gloomspite Gitz
But also, if you’re playing a local GT with your club, then bear in mind that meta may be completely different to those given in the stats above. All of what is presented here, should be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully it gives you some guidance when it comes to list construction, or even army choice if you’re looking to play Age of Sigmar.
