We’ve updated the method of calculating the Elo ratings into our Age of Sigmar stats, this includes an attempt to reflect both the tournament strength and the faction strength.
All of the results in this article are taken from Best Coast Pairings, , Ecksen, ChampionshipHub, Milarki, Mini Headquarters, Tabletop Herald and Longshanks. They include GT (Two day events) or GT+ (6 or more rounds) only.
For patrons, you’ll be able to download and play with the database as well (which includes all the lists and stats for all the factions).
As always, if you’re struggling to read a chart, you should be able to right click and then either view or download the image.
Tournaments Included (Using July Battlescroll)
| Event | Players | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Midwest Madness | 22 | DoT | CoS | KBZ | |
| 2026 Vienna Summer Tabletop Major AoS Singles | 41 | KBZ | BoK | LRL | DoT |
| 4th Annual Thunderstrike GT! | 32 | SER | CoS | MoN | OM |
| Age of Ropecon GT 2026 | 31 | SYL | HoS | DoT | SCE |
| Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament – Warhammer Open Tacoma | 104 | HoS | DoK | DoT | |
| Age of the Beast – 2 Day AOS GT | 16 | SoB | SER | SYL | |
| AoS @ Call to Arms 2026 | 26 | HoH | MoN | SBGL | |
| AoS Grimnirs Revenge 2026 GT | 30 | SBGL | FYR | CoS | IJZ |
| AoS Summer Scourge Presented by Carolina Reavers | 33 | CoS | CoS | SBGL | HoS |
| Ashes of the Arena GT | 24 | NH | DoT | StD | |
| Bad Moon Brawl GT#1 | 13 | CoS | SBGL | IDK | |
| Battle of the Bay V | 21 | SYL | GG | SBGL | LRL |
| Beer Garden Bash | 22 | CoS | GG | SKA | |
| Bière & Marteau 2026 | 12 | KO | SoB | HoH | |
| Bison Brawl Broken Fences! | 50 | SCE | FEC | CoS | |
| Black Tower Wargaming Summer AOS Ironman Event | 10 | CoS | DoK | SoB | |
| Boise Cup AOS 2026! | 22 | HoS | StD | LRL | MoN |
| Death by North West GT | 19 | DoT | CoS | FYR | SER |
| Egide AOS 2000ps Nouveau Manuel | 14 | SoB | IJZ | HoH | |
| El Agravio del Enanao Gruñón | 12 | StD | NH | SoB | |
| Fall Frenzy @ Warpfire Minis: August 29th-30th | 31 | KBZ | SER | SBGL | |
| Feud on the Fens 2026 | 56 | SoB | SYL | DoT | NH |
| Fields of Slaughter GT 2 | 22 | IJZ | HoH | StD | |
| Fountain City Fight Club | 29 | FYR | CoS | SER | MoN |
| Gateway Open Age of Sigmar 2026 | 52 | FYR | KBZ | SYL | SoB |
| Geekfest -Summer Heat – Age of Sigmar | 10 | SoB | KBZ | HoH | |
| Göteborgsslaget 2, slaget om Hisingen | 40 | HoS | FYR | SKA | |
| GT Solo AoS Goublins Villers-Bocage | 42 | DoK | BoK | SBGL | |
| GT WarhaSquigs | 52 | DoK | BoK | NH | |
| HUXLEYS OPEN 2026 – AGE OF SIGMAR | 50 | HoS | SCE | SCE | |
| Ironweld: Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament | 53 | CoS | StD | KBZ | MoN |
| King in the North 2026 | 15 | SoB | GG | FYR | |
| KREFELD MAJOR AoS 2026 | 42 | DoK | SoB | SYL | LRL |
| La Classique d’été | 28 | SYL | KO | SYL | SKA |
| Limestone City Grand Tournament 2026 | 20 | IJZ | SoB | LRL | |
| Lone Star Open 2026 – Age of Sigmar Champs | 40 | GG | IDK | CoS | StD |
| Mannheimer Summer Clash | 40 | OBR | IJZ | DoK | |
| MAW Tribe Telarah Takedown 2026 | 35 | SCE | SYL | CoS | |
| Mercia Madness V | 18 | KBZ | SoB | HoS | MoN |
| Mighty Founding – July 2026 | 26 | MoN | BoK | HoS | IDK |
| Mile High Open 2026 | 33 | SoB | SYL | SER | |
| Mox AOS 2k Tournament – August 2026 | 16 | SYL | CoS | SBGL | |
| Nashcon Age of Sigmar GT 2026 | 112 | MoN | StD | LRL | |
| NctctAOS | 18 | SKA | HoS | GG | |
| NI GT | 52 | CoS | DoT | DoK | KO |
| Ogopogo Open AOS GT | 30 | HoS | SYL | DoT | |
| Old Town Throwdown Summer Stampede | 114 | SER | FEC | HoS | |
| Oslohammer #12 | 21 | KBZ | SKA | BoK | DoK |
| Ottawa Gaming Convention AOS Champs | 18 | CoS | SER | SoB | |
| Palm Springs Classic – Sigmar GT | 42 | SER | HoS | SKA | DoK |
| PHOGAPALOOZA | 24 | SoB | SCE | StD | |
| Realmgate Clash GT | 12 | OBR | SKA | BoK | |
| Realmgate Warriors: Grotmas in July GT | 13 | DOK | IJZ | SER | |
| Realms 10 | 12 | HoS | BoK | SER | SCE |
| Realms 11 | 12 | BoK | SER | StD | |
| Realmshift Series 2026 – Chapter 2 | 38 | CoS | DoT | StD | |
| Republic At War | 18 | FEC | GG | StD | |
| Rose City Rampage 4: To the Rextreme | 30 | GG | HoH | DoT | |
| Sagahammer 2026 | 15 | CoS | KO | CoS | |
| Siege of York IV | 22 | FYR | OM | DoK | SKA |
| simit smash Ⅱ | 8 | CoS | SCE | KBZ | |
| Southeastern Slaughter, Battles and BBQ | 11 | GG | StD | LRL | |
| Stirling AOS Muster -S.A.M | 20 | IJZ | IDK | DoT | |
| Summer Slaughter: Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament | 37 | CoS | SYL | CoS | |
| Southeastern Slaughter, Battles and BBQ | 11 | GG | StD | LRL | |
| Tales in the Wood XV | 49 | DoT | MoN | SBGL | |
| TEO Age of Sigmar – Showdown | 10 | DoK | SBGL | SoB | |
| The Salt City GT Age of Sigmar | 11 | DoK | HoS | SYL | |
| The Utah Cup 2026 – Age of Sigmar | 27 | HoS | MoN | BoK | |
| Threshold Invitational XIII | 19 | DoT | LRL | SYL | |
| Vantastic GT Year 3 | 9 | MoN | OM | SBGL | |
| Warzone Southern Fried Sigmar GT | 36 | SBGL | LRL | OM | IJZ |
SOURCES
Best Coast Pairings
Tabletop Herald
Milarki
Championshub.app
MiniHeadQuarters
Ecksen
Longshanks
This week’s update adds another six events, 257 tournament runs and 1,260 individual player game records to the July Battlescroll data.
That additional evidence has produced movement at both ends of the table. Some of our thoughts around last weeks data have been strengthened, while one faction in particular now looks very different.
Faction Dashboard Analysis
The Ogors have arrived
Last week, Ogor Mawtribes had a 38% Observed Win Rate. But we know that was based on only 89 games from 19 players, leaving a large amount of uncertainty around the result.
One week later, and the picture has changed, a lot. Ogors now have 194 games from 40 players and an Observed Win Rate of 47%. Their confidence interval has narrowed to 40–54%, while their Skill-Adjusted Win Rate is also 47%.
This doesn’t mean that Ogors are sudddenly perfectly balanced. The is and will remain one of the smaller in the dataset until the next Battlescroll, and a nine-percentage-point movement in one week showsy why we need to be cautious with early samples.
What it does show is that last week’s 38% was not enough to support a firm conclusion.
Their tournament conversion has improved as well. Thirteen per cent of Ogor runs have now reached four wins, with another 35% finishing on three. Their zero-or-one-win share has fallen from 48% last week to 33%.
The early disaster has become something much closer to an ordinary faction result.
Gloomspite’s decline is becoming harder to ignore
Gloomspite Gitz remain at 45% across the complete Battlescroll, but the overall figure hides a more worrying trend.
Their latest 200 games have produced only a 38% Win Rate. Which is now 13.5 percentage points below their opening 200 game sample. That’s the largest negative movement in recent form on the dashboard.
Player strength doesn’t provide much of an explanation. Gloomspite players had a 49% baseline expectation, while the Skill-Adjusted Faction Win Rate only rises to 46%.
Their GT results are similar. Only 13% of Gloomspite players have reached four wins, while 31% have ended with either zero or one.
It’s becoming increasingly difficult to treat their recent decline as ordinary noise.
Three factions are gaining momentum
At the other end of the table, three factions are now showing improvement.
Disciples of Tzeentch have the largest positive change. Their latest 200 games have reached 55%, which is 6.8 percentage points above their opening sample.
But, Tzeentch also have one of the strongest player populations in the game. 35% of their players are rated at 500+ WoElo, and their individual match-ups were predicted to win 54% of their games. Once we adjust for that, their Skill-Adjusted Faction Win Rate falls to 49%.
The recent Tzeentch surge is real in that those games were won. But how much of it is faction strength and how much is the players skills?
Sylvaneth’s latest 200 games have reached 55%, an improvement of 4.8 percentage points. Their players were only expected to win 49% of their games, and their adjusted estimate remains at 53%, so the Faction does seem to have an affect on the players results.
Daughters of Khaine have also improved, with their latest sample reaching 57%, 4.5 points above their opening 200. Their stronger player population accounts for some of that performance, bringing their overall result from 55% observed to 53% adjusted.
Fyreslayers remain the faction to watch
Fyreslayers now have the highest Observed Win Rate on the dashboard at 58%.
That result still comes from a reasonably small amount of games, leaving a 51–64% confidence interval. But, even so, the player adjustment doesn’t bring the win rate down too much.
Their players had a 51% expectation to win, and their Skill-Adjusted Faction Win Rate stays at 54%. This is the highest adjusted estimate on the faction table.
This is the biggest difference between Fyreslayers and Hedonites of Slaanesh.
Hedonites have a 57% Observed Win Rate, but their players have the highest average WoElo in the game at 480.5 and were expected to win 55% of their games. Their adjusted estimate falls to 52%.
Both are winning plenty of games. But currently it seems that more of the Fyreslayers result remains after accounting for the players involved.
Cities stay strong, but their performance is steadier
Cities of Sigmar now have the largest high-performing sample: 830 games from 166 players.
Their Win Rate remains at 56%, with 28% of their players reaching at least four wins. Their last 200 games sit at 54%, only one percentage point below their opening sample, so no drop in performance.
After accounting for their skilled player population, their adjusted estimate is 54%.
Formation Analysis
Zealous Hordes continues to carry Cities
Zealous Hordes carrys on as the leading formation, with a 60% Observed Win Rate across 332 games.
Its players are strong, and their average WoElo is 480.8 and their players were expected to win 52% of their games. Even after adjusting for that, the formation stays at a 57% adjusted estimate.
Compared to the other Cities formations:
- Zealous Hordes: 60% observed, 57% adjusted
- Stalwart Guardians: 51% observed, 51% adjusted
- Swift Reinforcements: 50% observed, 50% adjusted
The faction’s performance is not spread evenly. Zealous Hordes is doing the heavy lifting.
Its 4+ Win Rate has dropped from 31% to 29%.
Other formations worth watching
Aelementor Guardians stays near the top of the table at 60% observed across 144 games. Their adjusted estimate has fallen to 54%, meaning that perhaps that player strength is possibly behind their results.
Lords of the Clan stands out for the opposite reason. It has a 55% Observed Win Rate, but its players were only expected to win 47% of their matches. Its adjusted estimate remains at 56%.
This shows a good example of a formation performing better than we expected from the previous results of the players using it.
At the bottom, Fleshmeld Menagerie has fallen to 38% observed across 133 games. Its adjusted result improves to 45%, the formation continues to struggle.
Squigalanche is the same at 42% observed and 44% adjusted across 203 games.
Popularity Analysis
Population Matters
The population charts shows why you shouldn’t just take the raw win rates at face value.
Tzeentch have 35% of their players rated at 500 WoElo or above. Daughters of Khaine have 36%, while Cities have 26%.
At the bottom, 60% of Kharadron Overlords players are rated below 400. The same is for 56% of Skaven players and 55% of both Gloomspite Gitz and Helsmiths of Hashut players.
Strong factions may attract strong players. Experienced players may swap towards particular playstyles. Also, repeatedly playing an underperforming army may itself drag down a player’s WoElo.
The adjustment is not intended to reveal a faction’s “true” win rate. It just asks how the faction performed compared with what we would have expected from the previous performance of the players involved?
As the Ogor results show this week, that, and the sample behind it, can make a big difference.
Win Analysis
What records are players walking away with?
Hedonites still lead the table, with 29% of players reaching four or more wins. Cities follow on 28%, Daughters of Khaine on 27%, and Disciples of Tzeentch on 26%.
Soulblight Gravelords are also quietly converting well. 25% of their players reach four wins, with another 25% finishing on three.
Stormcast Eternals remain near the bottom. Only 10% of their 180 players have reached four wins, while 31% have ended with either none or one.
The most important change, is Ogor Mawtribes. Last week, none of their players had reached four wins. That figure has now gone up to 13%,
Accounting for Player Strength
Woehammer Database
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