We’ve updated the method of calculating the Elo ratings into our Age of Sigmar stats, this includes an attempt to reflect both the tournament strength and the faction strength.

All of the results in this article are taken from Best Coast Pairings, Stats and Ladders, Ecksen, New Recruit, Tourneykeeper, Milarki and Longshanks. They include GT (Two day events) or GT+ (6 or more rounds) only.

For patrons, you’ll be able to download and play with the database as well (which includes all the lists) as reading this weeks Patreon only analysis of Seraphon.

As always, if you’re struggling to read a chart, you should be able to right click and then either view or download the image.

Tournaments Included (Using December Battlescroll)

Date	Event	Players	1st	2nd	3rd	WC
17 May 25	Masakr na Vysočině (CZE)	24	KBZ	LRL	FEC
17 May 25	Swamp Cup 2025 (RUS)	37	SCE	GG	DOT
17 May 25	The Kent GT at Warzone (GBR)	34	NH	MON	FEC
17 May 25	Charlotte Carnage Spring Assault (USA)	20	DOT	SOB	IJZ
17 May 25	Warpfire – Sigmar Summit (USA)	25	SKA	SOB	OM
17 May 25	The Bigger Battle for House Cox (CAN)	16	SBGL	S2D	IDK
17 May 25	The Last Hunt Age of Sigmar Tournament (USA)	22	OBR	SER	IJZ
17 May 25	Wrath of the Realms (USA)	35	BOK	HOS	IJZ
10 May 25	Kingdom in Flames – Chapter III (GBR)	10	FEC	GG	IDK
10 May 25	Carnage Singles 2025 (GBR)	56	MON	FEC	KBZ
10 May 25	Richmond Reroll GT III (CAN)	26	SKA	DOK	SYL
3 May 25	Realmgate Rebellion GT 6 (GBR)	8	SKA	OBR	SCE
3 May 25	Mercia Madness II (GBR)	14	FEC	SOB	SOB	SCE
3 May 25	Rumbo al Munial 2025 (BOL)	7	SCE	SER	FYR
3 May 25	Turbulent Games (USA)	17	DOK	SOB	IJZ
3 May 25	Slumber Party 2025 (AUS)	42	SYL	LRL	FEC
3 May 25	Shirecon 2025 (AUS)	34	BOK	KBZ	GG
3 May 25	Tabletop Renaissance (CAN)	12	SOB	FYR	SER
3 May 25	Richmond Open (USA)	32	SCE	SKA	SOB
3 May 25	AoS Onslaught 2025 (CAN)	22	IDK	KBZ	BOK
3 May 25	Mowan Spring Championship (CHN)	12	FYR	SKA	SCE
30 Apr 25	AoS Worlds: Singles (AUT)	113	LRL	S2D	GG	NH
26 Apr 25	Lancashire Legion GT (GBR)	16	FYR	FYR	S2D
26 Apr 25	Ironman Challenge (SWE)	10	MON	SER	SKA
26 Apr 25	Australian Age of Sigmar Masters (AUS)	16	SOB	SER	IJZ
26 Apr 25	AoS @ Valleycon 2025 (NZL)	28	SCE	DOK	SKA
26 Apr 25	Loonshrine: Remix Finál Ignition (MEX)	30	KBZ	BOK	SCE
26 Apr 25	Age of Sigmar Warpstone Wars GT 2025 (USA)	28	SER	DOT	IDK
26 Apr 25	Palladium Games Age of Sigmar GT (USA)	16	SYL	SOB	SKA	SCE
26 Apr 25	Iron Brawl GT Presented by Boss Hogs (USA)	25	MON	FEC	SKA
26 Apr 25	Dwellers Below AoS GT (CAN)	14	HOS	KBZ	SER	BOC
26 Apr 25	Wardome AOS (USA)	21	MON	SCE	SYL	IJZ
26 Apr 25	Trash Clash in the Bluegrass (USA)	28	SOB	IDK	KBZ	KO
26 Apr 25	PubHammer Open 3 (GBR)	16	SER	S2D	SYL	SKA
26 Apr 25	Nidaros Grand Tournament ’25 (NOR)	38	SYL	SCE	S2D
26 Apr 25	13. Nordhammer (SWE)	8	IDK	SER	SCE	SOB
26 Apr 25	Slambo for a Cause Grand Tournament (USA)	40	SBGL	S2D	LRL	OM
26 Apr 25	Regne Mortal: AOS (ESP)	14	SOB	SBGL	IJZ	LRL
19 Apr 25	Wet Coast GT (USA)	33	DOT	SER	IDK	DOK
12 Apr 25	Battle to End Alzheimers (USA)	28	DOT	DOK	SYL	SCE
12 Apr 25	Highground Brewsky GT (USA)	61	SCE	BOK	SER	OBR
12 Apr 25	Rose City Rampage 2 (USA)	33	SYL	DOT	STD	SER
12 Apr 25	Hampshire Grand Tournament (GBR)	56	IDK	DOT	SOB	OM
12 Apr 25	Lost Legion – Battle of the Bay (AUS)	44	SER	SER	IJ	DOK
12 Apr 25	Exploding Dice Spring GT (GBR)	20	OBR	SOB	LRL	KBZ
12 Apr 25	Kingdom in Flames – Chapter II (GBR)	20	SYL	STD	GSG	DOK
12 Apr 25	Fields of Slaughter Spring GT (GBR)	16	IJZ	IDK	FEC	MON
12 Apr 25	Storm of Corruption (GBR)	16	LRL	SCE	LRL	BSP
12 Apr 25	Battle Ready Games AOS 2k GT (CAN)	14	HOS	IDK	KBZ	BOC
05 Apr 25	Pizza Brawl Spring Edition (SWE)	17	SKA	SBGL	MON	DOT
05 Apr 25	Age of Slaughter : Skaventide (CHI)	22	FEC	STD	BOK	HOS
xxxxxxxxxx	xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx	xxxxxxxx	xxxxx	xxxxx	xxxxx	xxxxx

GT Win Rates

Neil Addleman: We had some more drastic shifts this week than last, with a whopping 1,048 games played in GT’s. Let’s look at some of the noteworthy shifts. 

Three factions that saw their win rate shoot up a little last week unfortunately fell back down. Kharadron Overlords fell down to 46.90% win rate and Daughters of Khaine fell down below 50% at 49.65%. Both can be attributed to the still lower player count, but something noteworthy of Daughters of Khaine is 6 of the 7 players last week included snakes in their list which we know has performed worse than aelves overall.  Sylvaneth still doing well overall with a 53.25% win rate that maybe was propped up a little bit last week with two 4-1 performances.

On the flipside, Nighthaunt are on the rise. Nine players managed to bring the overall winrate from 43.31% all the way to 47.67%! Looking at the lists that did well, I see plenty of Bladegheist Revenants, Hexwraiths, and a wide array of heroes and other tools. A total of two 4-1’s, three 3-2’s, AND a 5-0! Let’s see if they can keep this up and climb above 50% next week. 

Kruleboyz also managed to claw their way up to a 50% win rate after struggling a good chunk of this edition. There is a unique build going around with Kragnos and a bunch of monsters, some even including the Hurtlin’ Hogz RoR. Maybe some people have finally unlocked the secret sauce. 

Last thing to check in on is the new battletome finally getting some results. Soulblight Gravelords got a decent glow up and some new kits, and people are starting to take them to events. Last week there was a 1-4 and an 0-3 drop but this week we saw a total of 7 players trying out the new book and they achieved a 54.83% win rate.  Bringing their overall win rate to  46.51%. It is obviously still really early so expect some more drastic swings in win rate before it settles (right in time for a new GHB). But they already got their first 5-0 which is promising. 

Estimated Win Rates if the Player Skill Levels were Equal

That’s a mouthful of title isn’t it!?

Essentially, what I’m trying to do here is work out what the win rates would be if the skill levels of all the players were the same (Yes, I realise this is nearly impossible to calculate – But I’m playing around here).

How it works is by calculating the average Elo of all the players that have had matches since the April battlescroll dropped. This worked out as 441.8. I then calculated how much difference there was between a factions average Elo shown in our original win rate graph to this overall average. The difference between these two figures was then turned into a percentage difference over/under the 441.8 elo. I then increased or decreased their win rate by this percentage (But this isn’t as simple as deducting or adding the percentage different to the win rate – you have to work out for instance what 4% may be of say 53% and then apply that. For Example – 10% of 40% is 4%)

Battle Formation GT Win Rates

This data is calculated in the same way as the win rates for factions.

Faction Popularity (Broken Down by Player Elo Rating)

This is perhaps the most interesting chart to me personally. Here you can see the spread of the player skill levels for each faction according to our Elo rating system (updated each week in line with the Age of Sigmar stats).

The dark blue shows the really elite players of 700+ Elo. Interestingly, they don’t seem to give a damn about which faction is performing well in the meta and rely on their own skill (as they should!). Neither to 600-699 rated players. Where we start to see the swell in players possibly chasing the factions with more favourable rules is in players rated less than 600 Elo.

Elite and Rookie Players by Faction

The blue section shows the percentage of a factions players which have an Elo rating of 500 or greater. While the Orange shows the number of new players to the faction where they have yet to attend a tournament (based on our database history).

The Fabien Chart

Fabien Barbusse is a top player in the AoS scene and a member of the Woehammer Discord who is one of many who points out any mistakes in the charts before we publish them. He stated he felt the most valuable chart would be a version of the one above, which shows the % of 4+ win results in a 5 game event compared to the other results.

% of Players with a Positive GT Result

Ideally you would want 50% of the players having a positive results for a truly balanced game system.

Consecutive Wins

This chart shows firstly the % of players with a negative result from 5 games at GT’s or GT+ in purple for each faction.

Dark blue shows the percentage of players who achieved 5 wins from 5 in the first five rounds of a GT or GT+.

Orange shows the players who achieved four wins from the first four rounds of a GT or GT+ but were unable to achieve the full house and lost their round 5 match.

Green shows the players who achieved three wins from three wins but were unable to win in their fourth round match.

Light blue shows all other players aside from those shown in the first three categories, who were able to achieve a positive result at a GT or GT+ i.e. 3 or more wins.

For those of you who are counted among our legendary Patreons, you can download the stats database below which now includes warscroll win rates and lists.

On top of this there is some added extras in the form of a faction dive into Seraphon.

You can become a Patreon of Woehammer for as little as £2 a month!

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Disciples of Tzeentch Deep Dive

Battle Formations

Battle Formation	Success Rate
Tzaangor Coven	5 Games – 80% Success
Wyrdflame Host	145 Games – 51% Success

Neil Addleman: Something immediately apparent about Disciple of Tzeentch is it is a hard to play army. The disparity in winrate between those who have below 500 ELO and at or above 500 ELO is MASSIVE. For the “elite” players, accounting for 60 of the 150 games this battlescroll, the win rate is 75%. For the below 500 ELO players, that winrate is only 36%! 

So let’s focus on what higher ELO players are running and doing well with here. The big bird himself Kairos is in 75% of high ELO lists which isn’t a surprise at all, having a win rate at 78%, while lists without him are at 67%. Also including a lord of change is probably the right call, 53% inclusion rate but it’s win rate is at 80% which is slightly higher.

Blue horrors and Chaos Spawn also had a 75% inclusion (one player ran blues with no pinks), so you can start to see the base of a meta list. Same for flamers who were in as many lists as the Lord of Change. 

Past that is where you see differences in the options. Screamers of Tzeentch were only used by three of the twelve high ELO players, but had a 90% winrate. Between 33-42% of players  included some combination of Kairic Acolytes, Tzaangors, Tzaangor Enlightened on Disc, and Skyfires.  Of those the two on disc units appear to be doing better with 68-70% winrate, while the foot troops are between 60-63%. 

Looking at the actual performances, a surprising six of the twelve elite players went 4-1 or better. Of those six, four went into round five with a record of 4-0 with two of them going 5-0 and one 4-0-1. There was only a single player of the twelve that didn’t have a positive record, going 2-3. For reference fourteen of the nineteen sub 500 ELO players had a losing record. This is clearly a high ceiling low floor army, but it has all the right tools to succeed. 

Warscroll Win Rates

Top Unit Win Rates

Warscroll	Success Rate
Magister on Disc of Tzeentch	10 Games – 70% Win Rate
Kairic Acolytes	40 Games – 66% Win Rate
Blue Horrors and Brimstone Horrors	90 Games – 57% Win Rate
Pink Horrors	90 Games – 57% Win Rate
Kairos Fateweaver	110 Games – 56% Win Rate
Chaos Spawn of Tzeentch	105 Games – 56% Win Rate

Units to Avoid

Warscroll	Success Rate
Ogroid Thaumaturge	5 Games – 20% Win Rate
Exalted Flamer of Tzeentch	10 Games – 30% Win Rate
The Changeling	35 Games – 31% Win Rate
Tzaangors	60 Games – 38% Win Rate
Burning Chariot of Tzeentch	5 Games – 40% Win Rate
Tzaangor Shaman	50 Games – 40% Win Rate
Curseling, Eye of Tzeentch	30 Games – 40% Win Rate
Gaunt Summoner	5 Games – 40% Win Rate
Changecaster, Herald of Tzeentch	20 Games – 43% Win Rate

Artefacts of Power

Artefact of Power	Success Rate
Wyrdflame Blade	55 Games – 56% Win Rate
Nin-eyed Tome	80 Games – 52% Win Rate

Heroic Traits

Warscroll	Success Rate
Illusionist	110 Games – 59% Win Rate
Nexus of Fate	25 Games – 32% Win Rate

Battle Plans

Battle Plan	Faction Success Rate
Starstrike	3 Games – 100% Success
Shifting Objectives	13 Games – 69% Success
Feral Foray	5 Games – 60% Success
Close to the Chest	13 Games – 54% Success
Focal Points	17 Games – 53% Success
Scorched Earth	12 Games – 50% Success
Better Part of Valour	2 Games – 50% Success
Limited Resources	4 Games – 50% Success
The Vice	5 Games – 40% Success
Border War	13 Games – 38% Success
The Jaws of Gallet	13 Games – 38% Success
Battle for the Pass	11 Games – 27% Success

Woehammer Database

To download out Age of Sigmar stats database, click on the button below.

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