We’ve updated the method of calculating the Elo ratings into our Age of Sigmar stats, this includes an attempt to reflect both the tournament strength and the faction strength.

All of the results in this article are taken from Best Coast Pairings, Stats and Ladders, Ecksen, New Recruit, Tourneykeeper, Milarki and Longshanks. They include GT (Two day events) or GT+ (6 or more rounds) only.

For patrons, you’ll be able to download and play with the database as well (which includes all the lists) as reading this weeks Patreon only analysis of Seraphon.

As always, if you’re struggling to read a chart, you should be able to right click and then either view or download the image.

Tournaments Included (Using December Battlescroll)

GT Win Rates

Neil Addleman: With over 400 games played last weekend, I wanted to look at factions that shifted instead of just going over the overall meta again. There were 9 factions that had their win rate shifted more than 1%, with 4 going up and 4 going down.

Of the ones who went up, two still have just barely over 100 games played and are incredibly volatile because of it.
Kharadron Overlords saw some good success with a 4-1 and a 3-2 over the weekend, which caused it’s win rate to go from 47.31% to 49.07%, but with only 108 total games played this battlescroll. Of the two Kharadron 4-1’s so far, there were two Ironclads and two frigates between them, so at least we are seeing good boat variety.
While Daughters of Khaine had two 4-1’s over the weekend at the same event! Both elf lists with Krethusa and a Cauldron, which seems to be the version of Daughters with the most success seeing as how Krethusa has a win rate of 66% as opposed to Blood Sisters being at 50% win rate. Their overall win rate went from 51.55% to 54.21% but still only at 107 games total.

Gloomspite Gitz saw their win rate increase from 42.00% to 43.77%, most likely due to people still figuring out what works in the new tome and the Troggoth changes. While Sylvaneth saw an increase after two 4-1’s using two Belthanos/Kurnoth/Warsong lists, one with Alarielle and one with more bodies.

Five factions saw their win rate drop more than 1% after the weekend; Ossiarch Bonereapers, Lumineth Realmlords, Disciples of Tzeentch, Kruleboyz, and Stormcast Eternals. Of the 5 that dropped, 3 were and still are above 50%.

Lumineth was most likely propped up by a decent worlds singles appearance, followed by less experienced players trying to mimic that success. 5 players went a combined 18.5-11.5 (61.67% win rate) at worlds, and since then, 9 players went a combined 17-28 (37.78% win rate). Their win rate went from 54.6% to 52.6%. While Tzeentch only had a single player who went 1-4 and still only has 115 games so far, causing a larger win rate shift than you’d expect from 1 result.

Stormcast has an extremely large player base, so even though their win rate dropped from 52.45% to 51.16%, it is harder to dissect their results. Plenty of different lists, skill levels, etc. influence their win rates, and it would be normal to see it shift up and down week to week.
For the 2 factions that are sub-50% win rate and saw their win rate lower this week, it’s a matter of armies needing help while still having random decent results. Ossiarch saw some nerfs earlier in the edition which restricted good list building options, and Kruleboyz have struggled since their tome came out and while they’ve had some random 4-1’s and even a 5-0 those brave players can’t prop up the win rate forever.

Estimated Win Rates if the Player Skill Levels were Equal

That’s a mouthful of title isn’t it!?

Essentially, what I’m trying to do here is work out what the win rates would be if the skill levels of all the players were the same (Yes, I realise this is nearly impossible to calculate – But I’m playing around here).

How it works is by calculating the average Elo of all the players that have had matches since the April battlescroll dropped. This worked out as 441.8. I then calculated how much difference there was between a factions average Elo shown in our original win rate graph to this overall average. The difference between these two figures was then turned into a percentage difference over/under the 441.8 elo. I then increased or decreased their win rate by this percentage (But this isn’t as simple as deducting or adding the percentage different to the win rate – you have to work out for instance what 4% may be of say 53% and then apply that. For Example – 10% of 40% is 4%)

Battle Formation GT Win Rates

This data is calculated in the same way as the win rates for factions.

Faction Popularity (Broken Down by Player Elo Rating)

This is perhaps the most interesting chart to me personally. Here you can see the spread of the player skill levels for each faction according to our Elo rating system (updated each week in line with the Age of Sigmar stats).

The dark blue shows the really elite players of 700+ Elo. Interestingly, they don’t seem to give a damn about which faction is performing well in the meta and rely on their own skill (as they should!). Neither to 600-699 rated players. Where we start to see the swell in players possibly chasing the factions with more favourable rules is in players rated less than 600 Elo.

Elite and Rookie Players by Faction

The blue section shows the percentage of a factions players which have an Elo rating of 500 or greater. While the Orange shows the number of new players to the faction where they have yet to attend a tournament (based on our database history).

The Fabien Chart

Fabien Barbusse is a top player in the AoS scene and a member of the Woehammer Discord who is one of many who points out any mistakes in the charts before we publish them. He stated he felt the most valuable chart would be a version of the one above, which shows the % of 4+ win results in a 5 game event compared to the other results.

% of Players with a Positive GT Result

Ideally you would want 50% of the players having a positive results for a truly balanced game system.

Consecutive Wins

This chart shows firstly the % of players with a negative result from 5 games at GT’s or GT+ in purple for each faction.

Dark blue shows the percentage of players who achieved 5 wins from 5 in the first five rounds of a GT or GT+.

Orange shows the players who achieved four wins from the first four rounds of a GT or GT+ but were unable to achieve the full house and lost their round 5 match.

Green shows the players who achieved three wins from three wins but were unable to win in their fourth round match.

Light blue shows all other players aside from those shown in the first three categories, who were able to achieve a positive result at a GT or GT+ i.e. 3 or more wins.

For those of you who are counted among our legendary Patreons, you can download the stats database below which now includes warscroll win rates and lists.

On top of this there is some added extras in the form of a faction dive into Seraphon.

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