We’ve updated the method of calculating the Elo ratings into our Age of Sigmar stats, this includes an attempt to reflect both the tournament strength and the faction strength.

All of the results in this article are taken from Best Coast Pairings, , Ecksen, ChampionshipHub, Milarki, Mini Headquarters, Tabletop Herald and Longshanks. They include GT (Two day events) or GT+ (6 or more rounds) only.

For patrons, you’ll be able to download and play with the database as well (which includes all the lists and stats for all the factions).

As always, if you’re struggling to read a chart, you should be able to right click and then either view or download the image.

SOURCES
Best Coast Pairings
Tabletop Herald
Milarki
Championshub.app
MiniHeadQuarters
Ecksen
Longshanks

GT Win Rates

As always, these are global stats from various sources around the internet.

It’s early days for the September Battlescroll, with just 427 player runs in the data so far. But we are starting to see some interesting results. Idoneth are out in front with a win rate of 61.4%, followed by Daughters with 59.9%, Nurgle (56.6%), Ogors (55.4%) and Tzeentch (55.1%) all above the 55% mark.

At the other end we have Flesh-eater Courts at 33.3%, Sons (38.4%) and Nighthaunt at 38.8% all below 40%. There are large confidence intervals tied to these results though. Idoneth for example have only 44 players, meaning they have a confidence interval stretching from 46.6% all the way to 74.3%. I wouldn’t call anything broken just yet. We’ll get more of an idea where the Fations are heading in another couple of weeks.

Observed Win Rates versus Expected Win Rates

Win rates won’t tell us who are playing the factions though. Using WoElo, we can estimate how likely each player was to win each of their games based on their rating and that of their opponents. We then calculate an expected win rate for each faction based on the players using it and the opponents they actually faced.

There are some big results here already. Idoneth have a win rate (observed) of 61.4%, but their players would only have been expected to win 52.2% of their games. This gives them an overperformance compared to what we expected at +9.2 percentage points. Daughters, Ogors, Nurgle and Kharadron are all the same, with results over what we would have expected their players to achieve.

At the bottom Flesh-eaters jump straight out as a potential problem. Their players were expeected to win 46.8% of their games, but they only managed 33.3%.

It doesn’t prove that Idoneth are too strong, or Flesh-eaters to weak, but it does tell us that what we’re seeing may not be down to player strength alone.

Faction Popularity (Broken Down by Player Elo Rating)

Slaves to Darkness are so far the most popular faction overall with 167 games, followed by Stormcast Eternals on 149 and Sylvaneth on 130. But when we split them up into their WoElo ratings, we get more information.

Hedonites for example, have a win rate 43.1%. But those two players that are rated 700 or above had a win rate of 57.1%. This has been dragged down by those 400 or below. But even so, those 700+ rated players were still expected to win 83.6% of their games. the five players who were rated below 400 were expected to win 43.2% of their games, but achieved a win rate of 38.6%.

Going back to Slaanesh players, 29% of their games have been played by players rated at 700 or above. But, because the majority of their players are rated less than 400 their player mix could be making their results seem worse than they actually are.

It’s also worth looking at Idoneth again here as well, as their player mix doesn’t scream that they being carried by stronger players, and none of their players have been rated over 600 in these results, and 56% of their players are rated below 400.

But, these are small samples so far and should be taken with a lot of caution.

Elite and Rookie Players by Faction

Kruleboyz stand out with 50% of their results coming from 500+ WoElo rated players and none from first time tournament attendees.

The meta leaders Idoneth have 33% of their players recorded as first time attendees, this is beginning to make Idoneth look increasingly dangerous.

But as always, the samples are small and “First Tournament” just means first tournament recorded in our data, rather than necessarily that players first event they’ve played.

The Fabien Chart

This tells us a little more about players tournament experience, as it groups each factions tournament results by their final record.

Daughters having 37% finishing 4 or more wins seems a very high conversion rate and backs up their 59.9% win rate from the first chart. Ogors are also strong with 30% of their players reaching four or more wins.

Idoneth had none of their players finish with less than two wins, which when we take into account that 33% of their players hadn’t recorded a GT result with our data before, is an impressive result.

% of Players with a Positive GT Result

Consecutive Wins

This probably needs the most explaining. Instead of looking at a player’s final tournament result, we look at how many games they managed to win in a row from the start of an event before they lost. So a plyer showing in the 4 win section managed to win the first four games of their GT before losing in the 5th round.

Idoneth are here again with 11% of their players reaching the full 5-0 and another 11% reaching 4 wins before losing.

Past Battlescroll Win Rates

Woehammer Database

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