We’ve updated the method of calculating the Elo ratings into our Age of Sigmar stats, this includes an attempt to reflect both the tournament strength and the faction strength.

All of the results in this article are taken from Best Coast Pairings, Stats and Ladders, Ecksen, New Recruit, Tourneykeeper, Milarki and Longshanks. They include GT (Two day events) or GT+ (6 or more rounds) only.

For patrons, you’ll be able to download and play with the database as well as reading this weeks Patreon only analysis of Seraphon.

As always, if you’re struggling to read a chart, you should be able to right click and then either view or download the image.

Tournaments Included (Using December Battlescroll)

GT Win Rates

New battlescroll means updated stats. We won’t comment too much on this yet because as you can no doubt tell there isn’t enough data for some of the factions as yet. Though Idoneth Deepkin seem to have come out of the gate strong, while Gloomspite Gitz are falling into the “needs help” zone.

Estimated Win Rates if the Player Skill Levels were Equal

That’s a mouthful of title isn’t it!?

Essentially, what I’m trying to do here is work out what the win rates would be if the skill levels of all the players were the same (Yes, I realise this is nearly impossible to calculate – But I’m playing around here).

How it works is by calculating the average Elo of all the players that have had matches since the April battlescroll dropped. This worked out as 442.2. I then calculated how much difference there was between a factions average Elo shown in our original win rate graph to this overall average. The difference between these two figures was then turned into a percentage difference over/under the 442.2 elo. I then increased or decreased their win rate by this percentage (But this isn’t as simple as deducting or adding the percentage different to the win rate – you have to work out for instance what 4% may be of say 53% and then apply that. For Example – 10% of 40% is 4%)

Battle Formation GT Win Rates

Faction Popularity (Broken Down by Player Elo Rating)

This is perhaps the most interesting chart to me personally. Here you can see the spread of the player skill levels for each faction according to our Elo rating system (updated each week in line with the Age of Sigmar stats).

The dark blue shows the really elite players of 700+ Elo. Interestingly, they don’t seem to give a damn about which faction is performing well in the meta and rely on their own skill (as they should!). Neither to 600-699 rated players. Where we start to see the swell in players possibly chasing the factions with more favourable rules is in players rated less than 600 Elo.

Elite and Rookie Players by Faction

The blue section shows the percentage of a factions players which have an Elo rating of 500 or greater. While the Orange shows the number of new players to the faction where they have yet to attend a tournament (based on our database history).

The Fabien Chart

Fabien Barbusse is a top player in the AoS scene and a member of the Woehammer Discord who is one of many who points out any mistakes in the charts before we publish them. He stated he felt the most valuable chart would be a version of the one above, which shows the % of 4+ win results in a 5 game event compared to the other results.

% of Players with a Positive GT Result

Ideally you would want 50% of the players having a positive results for a truly balanced game system.

Consecutive Wins

This chart shows firstly the % of players with a negative result from 5 games at GT’s or GT+ in purple for each faction.

Dark blue shows the percentage of players who achieved 5 wins from 5 in the first five rounds of a GT or GT+.

Orange shows the players who achieved four wins from the first four rounds of a GT or GT+ but were unable to achieve the full house and lost their round 5 match.

Green shows the players who achieved three wins from three wins but were unable to win in their fourth round match.

Light blue shows all other players aside from those shown in the first three categories, who were able to achieve a positive result at a GT or GT+ i.e. 3 or more wins.

For those of you who are counted among our legendary Patreons, you can download the stats database below which now includes warscroll win rates and lists.

On top of this there is some added extras in the form of a faction dive into Seraphon.

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