Winners and Losers

Introduction

It’s a little late and much anticipated, but in the middle of the night (for me), Games Workshop finally gave us their latest take on the 40k meta and how it needs adjustment. Overwhelmingly, this is a dataslate of nerfs. Very little gets buffed. Before we go too far, we need to acknowledge that the 40k balance is amongst the best it’s ever been. GW’s own data shows that only 2 factions are outside of the 45% – 55% win rate band (Aeldari and Necron). 5 factions are at the bottom (45%), though:

•  Imperial Knights
• Tyranids
• Astra Militarum
• Drukhari
• Blood Angels

I question the data, but Drukhari and Daemons (not on that list) are really struggling. Tyranids are extremely player dependent on both top and bottom tables at recent events.

I am going to concentrate on the dataslate and factions within it and mention the points when it’s important. Some factions like Tau haven’t seen any attention outside of points, and I haven’t delved into them. These are my opinions, I might be very wrong. If you think I am, I’d love to hear your thoughts. And we can see if I’m right in 3 months’ time.

Dataslate

Big Winners – These are the standouts

Custodes
No doubt about it, winners. 
They get an additional model in Custodian Warden and Vexila Praetor units and keep their 4+ Inv (Invulnerable save) 4+ FNP (feel no pain). And the FNP works on Devastating Wounds.
They are going to be very strong, possibly top 5, and at least A Tier again.

Drukhari
A new detachment – Skysplinter Assault – that is going to grant a lot of movement and cover to very soft units. Combined with combat buffs (+ 1 AP when empowered) and the Archon joining Incubi Druhkari melee is back. A bit anyway. Dark Lances and Heat Lances remain strong. It remains to be seen if it’s enough to get them over the top, but expect them to be a real threat.

Necrons
A 3 month reprieve, no rule or point changes. Expect Necrons to be a problem with other top factions being nerfed.

Winners – At least you got something right?

Blood Angels – Blood Rite Detachment
Plus 2 Strength and 1 attack to melee weapons might not sound like a lot, but it gets a lot of units past breakpoints like Toughness 4 and Toughness 9. Potentially wounding on 2s (with a stratagem) sounds pretty good. No points changes but they may be competitive in Blood Rite.

Grey Knights
The Grand Master has ignore modifiers again – he’s going back into the list and DreadKnights got buffs to shooting (S10 -2AP 3 Damage ignores cover) and melee (Weapon Skill either 3+ with the S14 hammer or 2+ with the Sword). It’s not a huge buff but should potentially see a surge in play and success.

Black Templars – Gladius Detachment
This is looking very strong with Primaris Crusaders and Sword Brethren not being touched. It may be the best army in the game.

Space Wolves
Their sagas can be completed at the end of each players turn. You probably still won’t play the ‘Deeds Worthy of Saga’ detachment, but it is more likely to help now. Small buff (they are still good in other detachments).

Chaos Daemons
No rules changes but so many points drops which is what they really need. Certain to climb the list. Khorne daemons offer some real output. One to watch.

Chaos Knights
Points down on all of their big Knights and only Brigands going up 10 points. 

Neutral

Death Watch
Still nerfed 

Thousand Sons 
Nothing happening here

Astra Militarum
Clarification of orders, but Manticores took a hit

Genestealer Cults
Nothing, no points, and no rules. This is a sleeper, expensive, and not easy to play they have very strong rules in the index.

Nerfs – These factions are feeling some pain

Imperial Knights
Clarified an earlier ruling, didn’t extend bondsman. Very small buffs probably leave them borderline between nerf and neutral.

Adeptus Sororitas
This may actually be a winner in disguise. A very strong strategy has been limited on the Triumph, and they’ve had points increases. But at the same time, there are a lot of drops, so Paragons, Repentia, and Retributors are now more viable. They’ll continue to push on to the top tables.

Death Guard
Less free grenades and points rise on Plague Burst Crawlers and Plague Marines will hurt current lists. It’s more that it will change the lists/play more than make them much weaker.

Space Marines
Overall, their best generic units have taken a solid hit (Aggressors, Inceptors, and Centurions). Some chapters (Black Templars) took solid hits to points but are still strong. Overall, this is a small nerf.

Tyranids 
Already struggling, their best units have all had points increases. It’s a nerf, not a big one, but it’s still a nerf.

Adeptus Mechanicus
The codex is a miss, and they needed help, GW decided that they want more data (I think) before adjusting the most recent codexes. That’s great for Necrons and less so for Ad Mech. 

World Eaters
Their best enhancement is stripped back, and points increase to the most effective units. It exposes the lack of units and balance in the army. They are still strong and difficult to manage, but they didn’t have a lot of units on the table, and now they will have less.

Biggest Losers – these might sting a little

Aeldari
Less fate dice overall, Fate’s Messenger rerolls only affect the bearer (this is a big change), Phantasm has more restrictions, Night Spinner changed to a -2 to move, advance and charge, Yncrne can only teleport and charge in your turn and Wraithguard can only shoot the unit that shot them. Only Night Spinners and Wraithguards have had a points increase. 
This might seem like a lot, but the Yncrne is still very effective at influencing your opponents game, Night Spinners might have a buff. They didn’t affect charges before, and this is huge. Phantasm is harder to use but still going to be an issue. Weakened, yes, but this is still a very good army.

Chaos Space Marines – Hammer Time
Embarked units must have the same mark as the Transport, Dark Obscuration now they only have to be within 18”, Profane Zeal only gives reroll wounds, only available to a unit with the Undivided Mark and Accursed Cultists are dead.

Accursed Cultists can only return models in your command phase and are OC1. They are hard to build, move, or use. Never really popular. They are probably on the shelf with a 40pt hike. Forgefiends, Chaos Lord, Chosen, Warp Talons, and Obliterators all went up between 10 and 30 for minimum unit sizes. But that’s not all, Daemons are a lot harder to include. You must have a battleline unit for each non-battleline unit you  include. No more Blue Scribes, Changeling, or Syll’esske. 

CSM is going to be a lot weaker, maybe even just an average army with these changes.