Every edition of 40k and Age of Sigmar eventually reaches the same point. A few battletomes are released and once the tournament results start to settle, the strong factions show their heads.
Sooner or later someone asks: “Are the newer books better than the old ones? Are we seeing power creep?”
Recently I was chatting to PlasticCraic and the Craic Heads about this exact thing over on his discord. Pete had suggested that perhaps we were headed towards a two-tier meta where newer battletomes operate at a different level while the older ones struggle to keep up.
We’ve enough tournament data now that we thought we’d have a go at answering the question.
Does the data support it?
Rather than looking at the armies individually, I grouped armies based on their release date into cohorts, 6 month windows based on their release date.
Index Factions (still waiting for Battletomes as of writing): Cities of Sigmar, Fyreslayers, Hedonites of Slaanesh, Ogor Mawtribes, Seraphon and Sons of Behemat
1st Cohort (Battletomes released between July 2024 to December 2024): Orruk Warclans, Skaven, Slaves to Darkness and Stormcast Eternals
2nd Cohort (Battletomes released between January 2025 to June 2025): Gloomspite Gitz and Soulblight Gravelords
3rd Cohort (Battletomes released between July 2025 to December 2025): Blades of Khorne, Flesh-eater Courts, Helsmiths of Hashut, Idoneth Deepkin, Kharadron Overlords and Nighthaunt
4th Cohort (Battletomes released between January 2026 to Present): Daughters of Khaine, Disciples of Tzeentch, Lumineth Realm-lords, Maggotkin of Nurgle, Ossiarch Bonereapers and Sylvaneth
If newer battletomes are stronger, we should see the third and fourth cohorts win more games and reach the top tables more often.
Overall Win Rates
The newest battletome cohort currently sits at 54% as a collective, while the third cohort is a bit further behind at 51%. The remaining indices and 1st and 2nd cohorts site around 46-47%.
That’s already noticeable. the newer books aren’t just marginally ahead, as a group they’re threatening to break out of the 45-55% bracket. Six battletomes that together have a 54% win rate.
But we’ve spoken before about taking win rates in isolation. So what else?
Well first off, we know that a number of these factions have a strong player base.
Top of the Meta
Looking at the current faction rankings, this backs up our previous table. The top six factions by win rate are:
- Daughters of Khaine (4th Cohort) – 62%
- Lumineth Realm-lords (4th Cohort) – 55%
- Flesh-eater Courts (3rd Cohort) – 54%
- Disciples of Tzeentch (4th Cohort) – 54%
- Sylvaneth (4th Cohort) – 54%
- Maggotkin of Nurgle (4th Cohort) – 53%
Five of the six strongest performing factions have been released since January this year. That’s difficult to dismiss, especially when many of the older battletomes and index factions are clustering towards the bottom.
What Happens as Tournaments Progress?
Theoretically if newer books bully weaker players we would expect newer tomes to fade as events continue. Instead we’re seeing the opposite.
The newest cohort dominates in the first three rounds of an event. The above shows the percentage of players who achieve 3 wins from the first 3 rounds of an event and head in to the 2nd day of a GT undefeated.
Daughters lead, followed by Lumineth and Sylvaneth. By round three players are no longer facing random opponents, the players begin to meets the more elite of the tournament.
The pattern remains at the start of the 2nd day. The above, once more, shows the percentage of players who are achieving four wins from four rounds at a GT, going undefeated into the final round.
Easy games have gone now, and the armies are increasingly fighting one another.
Daughters of Khaine sit clear of everyone with the highest percentage of players achieving 5 wins at GTs. What is interesting though is we do see some drop off in the newer books. Maggotkin of Nurgle really suffer in the last round and while 7% of their players go four from four, they cannot break the armies they’re facing in the last round, the likes of Daughters and Slaanesh and they often cannot convert that final win.
Likewise for Kharadon Overlords who have 9% of their players going four wins from four, but then struggle in the final round, with only 2% achieving five from five.
Ironjawz perform a little better and do creep up the table.
But why are we seeing this?
Some factions seem excellent at generating momentum early in events.
Others prove much better at surviving increasingly difficult pairings.
If battletome age alone explained success, Hedonites should not be here. Yet somehow, despite remaining on Index rules, the faction continues converting strong starts into tournament-winning finishes at an impressive rate.
Clearly, there are exceptions. But exceptions do not necessarily erase broader trends.
The Broader Pattern Still Exists
But, unfortunately the newest cohort still appears overly represented among factions that have undefeated starts and stay in contention after harder pairings.
