We’ve updated the method of calculating the Elo ratings into our Age of Sigmar stats, this includes an attempt to reflect both the tournament strength and the faction strength.
All of the results in this article are taken from Best Coast Pairings, Stats and Ladders, Ecksen, New Recruit, Tourneykeeper, Milarki and Longshanks. They include GT (Two day events) or GT+ (6 or more rounds) only.
For patrons, you’ll be able to download and play with the database as well (which includes all the lists and stats for all the factions) as reading this weeks Patreon only analysis of Seraphon.
As always, if you’re struggling to read a chart, you should be able to right click and then either view or download the image.
Tournaments Included (Using June Battlescroll)
- 2d6 Oslohammer #10
- Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament
- Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament – Theatre of War II
- Age of Sigmar Sacramento Smackdown
- AoS Iron Man
- AoS UK Masters
- Battered Bison the Third, Rise of the Herd!
- Big Beef Beat Down AoS GT
- Central Island Open Age of Sigmar Event
- Crossroads Carnage 2025
- Feud on the Fens 2025
- French Wargame Cafe AoS N17
- GT Golden Ticket
- Hawghammer AoS GT
- Ice Breaker 2025
- Iron Gaels Gaming GT
- Ironweld: Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament
- Kirton Games Presents Summer Strife
- La Classique d’été
- Midsomer Mayham
- Mountain West Classic Grand Tournament ’25
- NCO V
- No Ones Present – Auckland AoS GT 2025
- Oceanic Championships of Age of Sigmar
- Partisan Games AoS GT
- Pizza Brawl Summer Edition
- Realmgate Rebellion GT 8
- Retribution is Nigh – 2 Day AoS Tournament
- Salt Smash III
- Salzburg Major AoS Singles 2025 – Alpine Cup
- Southern Fried Sigmar GT
- Summer GT by AoS Thursdays
- Tap Games Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament
- The Beast Strikes Back
GT Win Rates
This last week has seen the most data in one week since the new GHB dropped. With that amount of data, it was surprising to see how little the win rates changed from last week:
| Win % Change from LW | Faction | P | W | D | L |
| 0% | DOK | 70 | 45 | 0 | 25 |
| -2% | COS | 106 | 59 | 1 | 46 |
| 0% | KBZ | 65 | 37 | 1 | 27 |
| 2% | LRL | 91 | 53 | 3 | 35 |
| 0% | KO | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 |
| 2% | NH | 90 | 54 | 2 | 34 |
| 1% | OM | 35 | 21 | 0 | 14 |
| -9% | FYR | 45 | 17 | 2 | 26 |
| -1% | SOB | 55 | 27 | 0 | 28 |
| -4% | SKA | 122 | 55 | 1 | 66 |
| 1% | OBR | 54 | 28 | 0 | 26 |
| 1% | S2D | 128 | 64 | 1 | 63 |
| 1% | MON | 142 | 71 | 0 | 71 |
| 4% | SBGL | 105 | 58 | 1 | 46 |
| 5% | FEC | 55 | 31 | 0 | 24 |
| 0% | SYL | 88 | 42 | 2 | 44 |
| -5% | DOT | 60 | 26 | 1 | 33 |
| -1% | SCE | 142 | 63 | 1 | 78 |
| -1% | HOS | 50 | 22 | 0 | 28 |
| -4% | GG | 81 | 31 | 0 | 50 |
| -5% | IJZ | 79 | 27 | 0 | 52 |
| 6% | IDK | 50 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
| 0% | BOK | 60 | 24 | 0 | 36 |
The biggest winners this week appear to be Idoneth Deepkin increasing by 6%, Flesh-eater Courts increasing by 5% and Soulblight Gravelords increasing by 4%.
Our biggest losers this week were Fyreslayers losing 9% off their win rate, followed by Disciples of Tzeentch and Ironjawz who both fell 5%. Gloomspite Gitz can also count themselves among the unlucky few with a drop of 4%.
All the other factions stayed within 2% of their previous win rate.
Neil Addleman: We are still early in the meta, but there appears to be some definite trends forming. Seven total armies are above the 55% threshold, and while some were expected factions, others might surprise some people.
Daughters of Khaine, Cities of Sigmar, and Nighthaunt all had really strong tools added with the Scourge of Ghyran updates. Daughters of Khaine elf builds were already doing pretty well before the updates, Cities of Sigmar also got sizeable points cuts with the battlescroll, and Nighthaunt also got a very powerful terrain piece added. All this meant that these three factions were expected to be top performers going into the new season, and that is certainly shaking up to be the case.
Daughters and Cities seem to be a step above Nighthaunt, though. With the former already having three 5-0 results and eleven 4-1 results, the latter has two and fourteen, respectively. Daughters are even more alarming than that with a whopping 74% of players going 3-2 or better, and 41% of players going 4-1 or better.
The other four top armies also benefit from the Scourge of Ghyran updates and/or points cuts from the battlescroll. Whether it be Kruleboyz with it’s points cuts, new warscrolls, and new battle formation. Or Kharadron Overlords with it’s large points cuts and new boat enhancements. It is pretty clear that the Scourge of Ghyran has had a massive impact on this season.
On the low end, there are five total factions below the 45% mark. Two of them, Khorne and Idoneth Deepkin, either just got a new book or are about to, so their win rate should be taken with a grain of salt. But Seraphon is an interesting case because they were one of the best armies last season. But between the battlescroll putting a cost on their terrain and their most taken spell lore and enhancement, and Kroak possibly suffering from the new obscuring rules, they have fallen all way down to a 43% win rate.
Estimated Win Rates if the Player Skill Levels were Equal
That’s a mouthful of title isn’t it!?
Essentially, what I’m trying to do here is work out what the win rates would be if the skill levels of all the players were the same (Yes, I realise this is nearly impossible to calculate – But I’m playing around here).
How it works is by calculating the average Elo of all the players that have had matches since the April battlescroll dropped. This worked out as 426.7. I then calculated how much difference there was between a factions average Elo shown in our original win rate graph to this overall average. The difference between these two figures was then turned into a percentage difference over/under the 426.7 elo. I then increased or decreased their win rate by this percentage (But this isn’t as simple as deducting or adding the percentage different to the win rate – you have to work out for instance what 4% may be of say 53% and then apply that. For Example – 10% of 40% is 4%)
Battle Formation GT Win Rates
This data is calculated in the same way as the win rates for factions.
Faction Popularity (Broken Down by Player Elo Rating)
This is perhaps the most interesting chart to me personally. Here you can see the spread of the player skill levels for each faction according to our Elo rating system (updated each week in line with the Age of Sigmar stats).
The dark blue shows the really elite players of 700+ Elo. Interestingly, they don’t seem to give a damn about which faction is performing well in the meta and rely on their own skill (as they should!). Neither to 600-699 rated players. Where we start to see the swell in players possibly chasing the factions with more favourable rules is in players rated less than 600 Elo.
Elite and Rookie Players by Faction
The blue section shows the percentage of a factions players which have an Elo rating of 500 or greater. While the Orange shows the number of new players to the faction where they have yet to attend a tournament (based on our database history).
The Fabien Chart
Fabien Barbusse is a top player in the AoS scene and a member of the Woehammer Discord who is one of many who points out any mistakes in the charts before we publish them. He stated he felt the most valuable chart would be a version of the one above, which shows the % of 4+ win results in a 5 game event compared to the other results.
% of Players with a Positive GT Result
Ideally you would want 50% of the players having a positive results for a truly balanced game system.
Consecutive Wins
This chart shows firstly the % of players with a negative result from 5 games at GT’s or GT+ in purple for each faction.
Dark blue shows the percentage of players who achieved 5 wins from 5 in the first five rounds of a GT or GT+.
Orange shows the players who achieved four wins from the first four rounds of a GT or GT+ but were unable to achieve the full house and lost their round 5 match.
Green shows the players who achieved three wins from three wins but were unable to win in their fourth round match.
Light blue shows all other players aside from those shown in the first three categories, who were able to achieve a positive result at a GT or GT+ i.e. 3 or more wins.
Battle Tactic Win Rates
For those of you who are counted among our legendary Patreons, you can download the stats database below which now includes warscroll win rates and lists.
On top of this there is some added extras in the form of a faction dive into Seraphon.
You can become a Patreon of Woehammer for as little as £2 a month!
