We’ve incorporated player Elo ratings into our Age of Sigmar stats, so you can now see what affect the elite players have on those pesky win rates.

All of the results in this article are taken from Best Coast Pairings, Stats and Ladders and Ecksen. They include GT (Two day events) or GT+ (6 or more rounds) only.

N.B. We’re still having some technical issues with Everwinter, but these should be updated and included in our next stats update.

As always, if you’re struggling to read a chart, you should be able to right click and then either view or download the image.

Tournaments Included (Using December Battlescroll)

• 2D6 OsloHammer #9 X-Mas!
• Akron Brew Brawl-AoS GT
• Call to Glory 2025
• Cataclysmic Age of Sigmar Grand Tournament Q1
• Crossroads Carnage – LVCan’tgO
• Dice of Destiny GT 2025
• Gasts Hjaltar
• Hamburg Major 2025
• Haus of Heroes GT
• II GT PETREO (Memorial Enric Medina)
• LVO 2025 Age of Sigmar Champs
• Macao Sigmar Tournament
• North China Open IV
• Norwegian Masters 2024
• Sigmar Calls
• The Forge GT: Year 2
• The Nottingham AoS GT
• Trandermaster
• Weekend Warlord 8 – Endless War

GT Win Rates

Interestingly, the dying faction of Beast of Chaos have the highest Elo average of all the factions currently playable in Age of Sigmar, this will primarily be because of experienced players having them in their collection and possibly trying to make the most out of them before they are no longer tournament legal.

Disregarding both Beasts of Chaos and Bonesplitterz, our Age of Sigmar stats currently has four over achieving factions with the highest at of these at 59% – that’s not bad. While at the other end of the table we’ve three factions under achieving with the lowest at 42%. All of these factions are only a few percentile outside of the 45-55% green zone (balanced). Fyreslayers appears to be currently run by players with a lower than average Elo which could suggest that if they are picked up by more experienced players their win rate could go up further, this would be my only concern currently. Flesh-eater Courts, Maggotkin of Nurgle and Stormcast Eternals have a slightly higher than average Elo rating for their players, which could be marginally inflating their win rates.

Estimated Win Rates if the Player Skill Levels were Equal

That’s a mouthful of title isn’t it!?

Essentially, what I’m trying to do here is work out what the win rates would be if the skill levels of all the players were the same (Yes, I realise this is nearly impossible to calculate – But I’m playing around here).

How it works is by calculating the average Elo of all the players that have had matches since the December battlescroll dropped. This worked out as 432.6. I then calculated how much difference there was between a factions average Elo shown in our original win rate graph to this overall average. The difference between these two figures was then turned into a percentage difference over/under the 432.6 elo. I then increased or decreased their win rate by this percentage (But this isn’t as simple as deducting or adding the percentage different to the win rate – you have to work out for instance what 4% may be of say 53% and then apply that. For Example – 10% of 40% is 4%)

The results suggest that rather than being the top dog, Beasts of Chaos would be dawdling at the bottom. While Fyreslayers would be top dog after Bonesplitterz. Interestingly though, almost all the other factions under this estimate would fall within the 45-55% tolerance zone.

This is just for fun however, and is just my own estimate and is probably entirely wrong!

Battle Formation GT Win Rates

This chart only shows the Battle Formations that have achieved 100 games or more in GT play (the number of games shown in brackets).

Flesh-eater Courts have 240+ games in tournament play at GTs and we can see nearly half of those games are under the Lords of the Manor (allowing an additional slain model to be returned to their unit on top of whatever the usual ability allows) battle formation. While it’s probably no surprise to many of you that Vanguard Wing for Stormcast Eternals is their top choice – allowing one Vanguard Chamber unit per turn that doesn’t move to teleport anywhere on the battlefield 9″ away from all enemy units on a dice roll of 3+. Sentinels of the Bleak Citadels is also a strong choice for Stormcast Eternal players allowing the players to pick one Ruination Chamber unit each turn to have Ward (5+) for that whole turn.

At the bottom of the table, Bacchanal of Blood isn’t too hot for the Soulblight Gravelords, though it is their most popular option – allowing them to add 1 to casting rolls for friendly Vampire units that are not in combat and adding 1 to wound rolls for combat attacks made by friendly Vampire units that charged in the same turn (see Blood Knights).

Faction Popularity (Broken Down by Player Elo Rating)

This is perhaps the most interesting chart to me personally. Here you can see the spread of the player skill levels for each faction according to our Elo rating system (updated each week in line with the Age of Sigmar stats).

The dark blue shows the really elite players of 700+ Elo. Interestingly, they don’t seem to give a damn about which faction is performing well in the meta and rely on their own skill (as they should!). Neither to 600-699 rated players. Where we start to see the swell in players possibly chasing the factions with more favourable rules is in players rated less than 600 Elo.

Elite and Rookie Players by Faction

The blue section shows the percentage of a factions players which have an Elo rating of 500 or greater. While the Orange shows the number of new players to the faction where they have yet to attend a tournament (based on our database history).

As we can see, the player base for Beasts of Chaos is largely made up of Elite players, which is adding to their win rate in the charts at the beginning of this article.

Faction Win Rates for Players with sub-400 Elo

The aim of the above chart is to show how the lower rated players of between 300 and 399 elo are performing with the various factions. The figure in brackets denotes the number of games the data is based on.

Sons of Behemat, Maggotkin of Nurgle, Ossiarch Bonereapers and Fyreslayers seem to be the more forgiving factions to play in Age of Sigmar at the moment.

Faction Popularity (Broken Down by Number of Wins)

The above chart breaks down the faction popularity by the number of wins each player achieved in the first 5 rounds of games at GT’s or GT+’s.

This merely shows that Stormcast and Slaves are by far the most popular factions in the game at present.

Number of GT Wins as Percentage

This chart shows the % breakdown for the number of wins players are achieving in the first 5 rounds at GT and GT+ events.

The perfect split for each faction, if everything was perfectly balanced across factions would like:

The only faction anywhere near this ideal stat are Ogor Mawtribes and with a win rate of 52%, this is the kind of balance you would look for in the other factions in the game.

The Fabien Chart

Fabien Barbusse is a top player in the AoS scene and a member of the Woehammer Discord who is one of many who points out any mistakes in the charts before we publish them. He recently stated he felt the most valuable chart would be a version of the one above, which shows the % of 4+ win results in a 5 game event compared to the other results.

Consecutive Wins

This chart shows firstly the % of players with a negative result from 5 games at GT’s or GT+ in light blue for each faction.

Dark blue shows the percentage of players who achieved 5 wins from 5 in the first five rounds of a GT or GT+.

Orange shows the players who achieved four wins from the first four rounds of a GT or GT+ but were unable to achieve the full house and lost their round 5 match.

Grey shows the players who achieved three wins from three wins but were unable to win in their fourth round match.

Yellow shows all other players aside from those shown in the first three categories, who were able to achieve a positive result at a GT or GT+ i.e. 3 or more wins.

The light blue shows the percentage of players unable to achieve a positive result with the faction at a GT or GT+.

Woehammer Database

To download out Age of Sigmar stats database, click on the button below.