AoS Meta Stats W/Ending 2nd April 2023

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Disclaimer

The data contained inside this article is only Woehammer’s interpretation. There are differing methods and analyses of the data available from Games Workshop and Honest Wargamer, whose methodology differs slightly from our own.

All of these sources should be viewed as a collective whole to allow you to gather a larger picture of the Age of Sigmar meta. The win rates, while accurate for events we have on record so far, are likely to change in the coming weeks and shouldn’t be the single point of reference for a factions strength.

How Win Rates are Calculated

All of our data is pulled from two day single events. We split all draws between the wins and losses of a faction evenly, as we believe this provides a fair reflection of a factions win rate. For example, as a player, you may achieve 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw at an event. Some sites will only count the wins towards the faction rate, so in this case, 40% (2/5=0.4). Woehammer includes half of the draws, so our result would be 50% (2.5/5=0.5).

We have also included a confidence interval based on the sample size and their results. This interval has a 95% confidence rate. What does this mean? Essentially, we’re 95% sure that the win rate of the faction will fall inside this band at the release of the next battlescroll.

We have decided to include this as each factions win rates can (and will) fluctuate as more and more players post their results. While the faction win rate may be that specified right now, it is more than likely to change in the future. So when looking at a win rate, take into account the number of players who have posted results, as well as the upper and lower limit of that 95% confidence interval. This will give a good indication of the future win rate of that faction.

Event Submission

If you have organised an event that doesn’t appear in our database and has the following minimum requirements to be included:

  • Two Day Event
  • Singles Event
  • Minimum of 8 players

Then why not complete the form attached and send the results to thewoehammer@gmail.com? We’ll include them the next time we produce the stats.

Data Overview

Tournaments Included:

  • GT Wargame Garrison Madrid
  • AoS Ironman
  • Østjysk Mesterskab I terningehøjdekast
  • Rise of the Champions
  • Quest of Champions – Heat 1
  • Bloodshed in the Shires
  • CaptainCon
  • Columbus Brewhammer
  • DaBoyz Golden Sprue GT
  • War of the Ospreys
  • Realm of Geddon
  • Gods of War 3
  • Great South Waaagh
  • War of the Spider God
  • Midwest Bash 2 AoS GT
  • Aos Alliance Open Masters
  • Battle at the Brook
  • Sheffield Slaughter
  • The Lone Star Grand Tournament
  • Battle of Copenhagen
  • Sydney Salt Smash
  • Wardolly Weekend
  • Spring GT
  • A Gathering of Might
  • TCC: AoS March 2-Day Event
  • War Under the Mountain
  • Adepticon 2023
  • The Lords AoS Tournament Season 2
  • IIC N – II GT de CAT
  • Exploding Dice AoS GT
  • Neapolis GT
  • Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Matched Play Event
  • Cherokee Open
  • Small Town Throwdoen: Smoke on the Water
  • AOSFF Solo 2022-2023 Finale
  • Norsehammer Open
  • G&T GT
  • Sigmar’s Spice Rack
  • Golden Potato
  • Realmgate Rampage II
  • Brewdog AoS GT
  • Midtcon GT
  • Southampton GT
  • Silverstream Smackdown
  • War in the North 3
  • Straight Edge Wargaming
  • Guts & Glory AoS Club Tournament
  • Sparkle Party Deathmatch VIII
  • Rocky Mountain Open
  • Rumble in the Rockies
  • March Mayhem
  • Dazmaul Wargaming Tournament 2023
  • Stockholm Slaughter 9: Miniluntan
  • Manchester AoG GT
  • Spring Rumpus GT
  • Dala Stompen
  • Fantasia Fanatic XLIII
  • Vic GT 2023
  • Justtice Series Grand Tournament
  • Quest of Champions – Heat 2
    • Broken Realms and Minis for War 3

Faction Win Rates

As we have now included a confidence interval within our data based on the sample size and results, we have now included all factions within the below tables regardless of their player base.

Win Rates

You’ll see in the chart above that each faction shows its current win rate as a % inside a text box. The paler green and yellow segments show the margin of error of that win rate. We predict with 95% confidence that the win rate will be within the paler bars upon the release of the next battlescroll.

Our first takeaway is that at the present win rates, the new Kharadron Overlords book has had a massive impact, making a debut last week at around 67%, it’s now fallen to 64%, will the this trend continue? Players who fought the previous iteration are perhaps being wrong-footed by the switch in where the threats are coming from in this new book. I think that this may yet settle down, but not before the new Battlescroll hits next month.

We won’t talk about the new Slaanesh or Khorne results yet, as with only three players apiece it’s too early to draw any meaningful data from these.

Disciples of Tzeentch are in excess of the 45-55% bracket. While Big Waaagh has fallen this week back within tolerance. Big Waaagh is a small (possibly highly skilled) sample size, the Disciples of Tzeentch is now large enough of a sample to consider this figure seriously.

Gloomspite Gitz and Lumineth Realm-Lords both threaten to break the 45-55% bracket but as yet haven’t quite done so. Interestingly with Lumineth, we are seeing a standout subfaction here (which as we all know revolves around Teclis, Sentinels and the Rune of Petrification).

This goes to show, that looking at a win rate for a faction as a whole doesn’t necessarily tell the whole picture. We can see that Helon (the most common subfaction) is reaching the dizzying heights of 61%, but this is being pulled down by the other subfactions, with Ymetrica (the cow dudes) really suffering.

Likewise with Gloomspite Gitz, we’re seeing that the Jaws of Mork (Squigs), is really the outstanding subfaction so far, while all the others are seeing pretty reasonable win rates. So don’t necesaarily rag on your mate that plays Gitz (unless they’re playing Jaws).

If you wish to view our traditional win rate chart without the margin of confidence:

Player Results by Wins

This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly, it shows the faction popularity by the number of players, and secondly, it breaks down those players’ results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.

Here, we’ve included all the factions that have been played to date, as there is no benefit in removing those with a small sample size.

For once Stormcast have been knocked off their perch as the most popular faction, with Slaves to Darkness now taking the top spot. Athough Stormcast did make a considerable dent into this faction lead last weekend.

Faction Popularity

Looking further into this, let’s compare some of these factions current popularity to their past results.

I’ve chosen seven factions, all of which have been affected by either new Battletomes or rules changes in some way over the last few months.

Ogor Mawtribes saw a large jump in their player base from December onwards as the players started seeing the potential of their new battletome.

We can also see straight away the effect of the Slaves to Darkness new Battletone in January/February with time. Their share of the player base jumped from roughly 2.5% in the previous months to well over 5% in January onwards. With 9.4% of all the players in February choosing Slaves to Darkness. Likewise, we see a drop in the percentage of Seraphon, Sons of Behemat, and Idoneth Deepkin players for the same time periods.

With the recent release of the Gloomspite Gitz tome, we’re also seeing a large number of players jump to the revamped destruction faction.

The full list month-by-month is below:

When looking at the above table, bear in mind that this is the worldwide meta, and region to region or even city to city may differ. So while this gives us a general idea of the meta worldwide it may not be representative of your local meta.

Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from 3

Out of all the players using that faction (shown in brackets next to the faction name), this graph shows the number achieving a whitewash at a GT with 5 wins from 5. Those achieving 4 wins from 4 after the fourth round and those achieving 3 wins from 3 after the 3rd round. Take into account that those who achieve 5-0 are included in the numbers of 4 wins from 4 and 3 wins from 3. Likewise, those achieving 4 from 4 are included with the 3 from 3 data.

We can see here that the graph is sorted left to right by the number of 5-0s. Lumineth Realm-Lords have achieved the most with 9 players going 5-0. When looking at this graph, bear in mind the player base size shown in brackets.

Results Split

This chart tells you which factions are more capable of achieving positive results at tournaments. Previously new Gloomspite Gitz had 61% of their players achieving 3 or more wins at a 5 game tournament, this has now fallen to 56%, which tells us many players are developing tactics on dealing with those Gloomspite Gitz lists. This also tells us that the win rate for them will eventually fall slightly as a result. Do they need a nerf? Well, possibly, as we’ve seen the Jaws of Mork are strong, so it does make sense for GW to bring the bat against the Squigs in the upcoming battlescroll.

Conclusions

If you’re planning your list for a GT, look at the data as a whole. Think about which armies are popular, as you’ll likely face at least one or two of these armies at some point during an event, especially in the earlier rounds.

Look at those factions that are regularly in a tournament winning position and winning GTs, as these are likely to be your opponents in the later rounds. I believe you should look at building a list that is able to cope with playing the following factions at some point in a GT if you’re looking to compete;

  • Slaves to Darkness
  • Stormcast Eternals
  • Sylvaneth
  • Ogor Mawtribes
  • Gloomspite Gitz
  • Lumineth Realm-Lords

But also, if you’re playing a local GT with your club, then bear in mind that meta may be completely different to those given in the stats above. All of what is presented here, should be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully it gives you some guidance when it comes to list construction, or even army choice if you’re looking to play Age of Sigmar.

Our Database

This is our most copy of our database.

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