How Win Rates are Calculated
There have been inquiries regarding the calculation of our win rates. The key difference between us and Honest Wargamer is that we take into account draws, whereas Honest Wargamer/TSN only considers wins.
Our calculation method involves counting draws as a 0.5 win and 0.5 loss. This can lead to slight differences in our rates compared to those of HWG/TSN. For instance:
A player with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses would have a 40% win rate using the HWG/TSN method (2 divided by 5 = 40%). In our method, we would count 2 wins and half a win from the draw, which equals 2.5 wins. Divided by 5, the player would have a 50% win rate.
The Honest Wargamer/TSN also have access to many more tournament results than ourselves via their large fan base. This does mean that we may not have the same amount of tournament data as HWG/TSN. However, we will try and source the information if we’re aware a tournament exists.
We believe that having multiple perspectives on win rates is beneficial, and both methods have their own merits. If you want to view the great work by Ziggy and Rob’s team, visit the Honest Wargamer website.
If you have organised an event that doesn’t appear in our database and has the following minimum requirements to be included:
- Two Day Event
- Singles Event
- Minimum of 8 players
Then why not complete the form attached and send the results to firstname.lastname@example.org? We’ll include them the next time we produce the stats.
Faction Win Rates
We’ve now had 22 factions reach our marker of 20 players at GT’s so far, all others will be added over the coming weeks as they cross this threshold.
We’ve two new entries this week with the new Beasts of Chaos reaching the 20+ player marker to be included in the above graph. Entering at 54.03% shows that perhaps the book is not as awful as has been led to believe by many of the previous Beasts players.
Joining Beasts of Chaos is Blades of Blades (Blades), sorry I mean Blade of Khorne. They enter at 46.91% having performed really well at the cutting edge of the tables with two 4-1’s and a single 5-0 in the last two weeks alone.
Interestingly, the additional weeks results has seen both Skaven and Kruleboyz finally climb out of the sub 45% zone. Whether this will maintain in the future weeks will be interesting to see.
Remember that more often than not, factions with a smaller sample size will have a dedicated player base who very knowledgeable about their faction book and capabilities. Likewise, factions with a large sample size will have players of all skill level representing them, such as Stormcast or Slaves to Darkness. This can mean that their win rate is being pulled down a little more than in other factions.
Subfaction Win Rates
A new table this week for you. We’ve made the decision to show all subfactions that have reached our 20+ player threshold and where they stand in terms of win rates. While a faction win rate can tell you so much, the subfactions win rates can only add to this picture. Telling us the most popular subfactions as well as they’re win rates. This can also show that while an individual subfaction may be incredibly strong, some of the subfactions within that book may be vastly underpowered.
A good example of this is shown in the table above with two Slaves to Darkness subfactions. Host of the Everchosen is sitting pretty dismally with a win rate of 42.78% from 53 players. While at the upper end of the table Cabalists (represented by 28 players), has achieved a win rate of 52.96%.
Player Results by Wins
This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly it shows the faction popularity by the number of players and secondly it breaks down those players results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.
Here, we’ve included all the factions that have been played to date, as there is no benefit in removing those with a small sample size.
For once Stormcast have been knocked off their perch as the most popular faction, with Slaves to Darkness now taking the top spot.
Players Achieving 5-0 Wins and Tournaments in Winning Positions
This graph has two purposes. Firstly, it shows the number of players that have been on the brink of reaching the elusive 5-0 (essentially four wins in the first four games of a GT). This figure is shown by the grey columns. As you can see there have been some factions that have so nearly claimed that 5-0 only to fall short at the final game.
There are factions capable of achieving four wins from four, but are unable to convert that last game to a win. This can occur when a faction simply comes up against another which has too many tools in its toolbox to deal with them.
What this can tell you is, to perform well you would need to create an army that can cope with those factions that are regularly reaching four wins from four, Lumineth, Gitz, Fyreslayers and Sylvaneth. As you’ll often be facing these in the later rounds. But you would also account for faction popularity in the earlier rounds, so you may find in the first two or three rounds you’ll be facing of against factions like Stormcast or Slaves to Darkness.
This graph can tell you which factions are more capable of achieving 5-0 results. But bear in mind those factions with smaller sample sizes such as Big Waaagh or Cities of Sigmar will have a dedicated player base who know their time very well. It does show that Fyreslayers, while being relatively popular, also have a fair number of their players achieve 5-0.
When including players achieve 4 wins, as well as those who achieve 5-0. Almost a third of all Lumineth players are achieving 4 wins or more at GT’s. That’s a huge amount taking into account their sample size of 74 players.
Meanwhile Gitz and Flesh-eater Courts, see a quarter of their player base reaching four wins or more.
Interestingly, Flesh-eater Courts have a quarter of their players achieving 4 wins or more, but looking back at our TiWP and 5-0 graph earlier in the article. Not many of them are achieving this in the first four games of a GT, meaning they’ll often lose a game in the first few rounds and then have a strong run of wins.
And finally the chance of going 3+ wins (including 5-0 and 4+). Showing the percentage of players achieving a positive result at a GT. Again, bear in mind the small sample size for some of these factions.
Having said that over 60% of Lumineth players are achieving a positive result at GT’s, as are Gitz and Disciples of Tzeentch. Sons of Behemat and Big Waaagh! are also racking up over 60% of their players achieving a positive result, but their sample sizes are much smaller and suggest dedicated player bases.
If you’re planning your list for a GT look at the data as whole. Think about which armies are popular, as you’ll likely face at least one or two of these armies at some point during an event, especially in the earlier rounds.
Look at those factions that are regularly in a tournament winning position and winning GT’s, as these are likely to be your opponents in the later rounds. I believe you should look at building a list that is able to cope with playing the following factions at some point in a GT if you’re looking to compete;
- Slaves to Darkness
- Stormcast Eternals
- Ogor Mawtribes
- Gloomspite Gitz
- Lumineth Realm-Lords
But also, if you’re playing a local GT with your club then bear in mind that meta may be completely different to those given in the stats above. All of what is presented here, should be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully it gives you some guidance when it comes to list construction, or even army choice if you’re looking to play Age of Sigmar.
This is our most copy of our database.