Following our a few weeks ago, we announced that we would be looking at the Old World stats. Since then, we’ve received numerous requests for updates.
We’ve also recently created an Old World discord server so that you can discuss everything Fanstasy with like-minded people.
Also, if you get a chance, what not check out our Old World: Conquest narrative system, based on Age of Sigmar’s Path to Glory.
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Tournament Data
With around 3-4 tournaments each weekend, the data is gathering at a steady pace. However, all the events have been single day tournaments so far.
All of the current data are for events hosted on Best Coast Pairings, Stats and Ladders and Ecksen. Our thanks goes to these sites for their continued support with our stats projects.
The points size for one day events varies, but 2,000 points appears to be the most common limit at present. However, without any GW events having taken place yet, there are a few at smaller point values.
All of these results have been used in the stats to date. As we gather more data, we will begin to split out the Grand Tournaments from the rest of the pack. We may also split out the 2,000 point RTT (single day) events. But we’re happy to be led by the community on this. We would love suggestions as to what you would like to see.
Faction Data
We’ve chosen a minimum limit of 60 games featuring the faction, for them to be included in the statistics. With the games being drawn from single day events, this means it represents a minimum of 20 players per faction. This should provide a varied enough data set in terms of individual skill.
We calculate the win rates by adding the number of game wins and half their number of draws. We then divide the result by the factions total games to give a win percentage.
There are a number of factions who haven’t yet managed the 60 game target. These are;
Beastmen Brayherds – 55 Games Played
Chaos Dwarfs – 27 Games Played
Daemons of Chaos – 44 Games Played
Dark Elves – 51 Games Played
Lizardmen – 41 Games Played
Ogre Kingdoms – 56 Games Played
Skaven – 40 Games Played
I can reveal that out of the above, three of those factions are outside the ideal 45-55% win rate range.
So out of the gate, the stats look very good. Tomb Kings have fallen from their 66% two weeks ago to 60%, but this is a good result. Especially considering this is a new system, and Games Workshop hasn’t done any balance updates as yet. Only four factions so far are outside the 45-55% win rate range. With two of those only marginally outside that bracket.
In terms of popularity, the Kingdom of Bretonnia is the most popular faction. Followed by the Orc and Goblin Tribes and Warriors of Chaos, both of which have always been popular in Warhammer Fantasy.
There we have it, is there any specific data you’d like to see included in the future? If so, drop us a comment below.
Where’s the best source of individual event results and lists to look at?
You would have to pay for BCP subscription, then you can browse the events there.
Newrecruit (dot) EU has tournaments too.
Yup, we’ll be adding them soon
Would be interesting to see how many of these events already have in place composition restrictions, rather than “out of the book” Old World. I imagine the comp meta gives a boost to some armies (Tomb Kings/Wood Elves) that hinders others.
Possible bias in the result based on initial composition? I’d be cautious about any big swings for “GW needs to fix X or Y army” before we get clearer understanding on how composition rules at these events may skew the results.
Publish the other factions… you can do it in a separate graph with big “Insufficient datapoints” at the top, but DO PUBLISH IT.
You could also pretty easily add error bars for 90 or 95% confidence. That allows you to start looking at results while giving a lot of weight to number of games played. I did those numbers on the chart above, and it showed me vampire counts position is kind of nebulous–the 95% interval covered almost the entire range of current faction results. And they are at 85 results– I’d expect chaos dwarves at only 27 results to cover almost the entire possible range regardless of actual record.
Please add stats for the Legacy factions and Arcane Journal variants too? It would be interesting to see how they each perform outside of their overall faction. I know GW don’t allow legacy armies but it sounds like virtually all third party tournaments are sensibly fine with them.
We will include them I promise. They just need to hit out minimum game quota of 60.
First off, thank you for this first swing at the information for TOW. I’m in the process of trying to take this to the next level with head to head data and providing results based on confidence intervals instead of just using an n=60 threshold. This gives people who want some preliminary data that, while also showing exactly how low accuracy it is.
Looking through both Stats & Ladders and Ecksten, it appears there are no current results for TOW on either. Is that accurate to your accounting as well? I agree keeping them available to add data later is the right move, so long as their reporting methods allow for consolidation. I’ll probably look into a month of BCP in the near future if this is something you or others would actually like to work with. Additionally, have you pulled the head to head data out of the set, or do we still have that issue hanging around– it causes a skew towards 50/50, but it’s not uniform and can mask an awful lot of issues when faction popularity is all over the place. Feel free to e-mail me if you’re interested in doing some collaboration on this.
Hi! T3 Tournament (https://www.tabletopturniere.de/)
here are alot of TOW tournaments aswell for Germany.