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• Disclaimer
• How Win Rates are Calculated
  • Confidence Level
• Event Submission Template
• Faction Win Rates
• Faction Popularity
• Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from 3
• Results Split
• Conclusions

Disclaimer

The data contained inside this article is only Woehammer’s interpretation. There are differing methods and analyses of the data available from Games Workshop and Honest Wargamer, whose methodology differs slightly from our own.

All of these sources should be viewed as a collective whole to allow you to gather a larger picture of the Age of Sigmar meta. The win rates, while accurate for events we have on record so far, are likely to change in the coming weeks and shouldn’t be the single point of reference for a factions strength.

How Win Rates are Calculated

All of our data is pulled from two day single events. We split all draws between the wins and losses of a faction evenly, as we believe this provides a fair reflection of a factions win rate. For example, as a player, you may achieve 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw at an event. Some sites will only count the wins towards the faction rate, so in this case, 40% (2/5=0.4). Woehammer includes half of the draws, so our result would be 50% (2.5/5=0.5).

We have also included a confidence interval based on the sample size and their results. This interval has a 95% confidence rate. What does this mean? Essentially, we’re 95% sure that the win rate of the faction will fall inside this band at the release of the next battlescroll.

We have decided to include this as each factions win rates can (and will) fluctuate as more and more players post their results. While the faction win rate may be that specified right now, it is more than likely to change in the future. So when looking at a win rate, take into account the number of players who have posted results, as well as the upper and lower limit of that 95% confidence interval. This will give a good indication of the future win rate of that faction.

Event Submission

If you have organised an event that doesn’t appear in our database and has the following minimum requirements to be included:

• Two Day Event
• Singles Event
• Minimum of 8 players

Then why not complete the form attached and send the results to thewoehammer@gmail.com? We’ll include them the next time we produce the stats.

Data Overview

Tournaments Included:

Faction Win Rates

As we have now included a confidence interval within our data based on the sample size and results, we have now included all factions within the below tables regardless of their player base.

Win Rates

You’ll see in the chart above that each faction shows its current win rate as a % inside a text box. The paler green and yellow segments show the margin of error of that win rate. We predict with 95% confidence that the win rate will be within the paler bars upon the release of the next battlescroll. The size of this segment is determined by the number of tournament entries using that faction, the spread of their win rates at competitions and finally how many weeks are estimated to be left until the next battlescroll update.

There are now six factions above the 55% win rate marker, with Daughters of Khaine currently the meta leaders with 59%. However, bear in mind that their sample size is small and this could be a few elite players outperforming the faction. Although two of these are continuing bullies from last time around.

Soulblight Gravelords appear to have stabilised at roughly 58%. These two factions are joined by Seraphon (58%), Big Waaagh! (57%), Ossiarch Bonereapers (56%) and the Sons of Behemat (56%).

Part of me does wonder if we’ll begin to see the Bonereapers fall, as their successful lists all seem to be centred around Katakros, Arkhan, Boneshaper, Immortis Guards and Kavalos Deathriders. I have a feeling once players adjust to this, they’ll begin to work out answers to the Bonereapers and their win rate will fall. Why not take a quick look at last weeks Top Performing Lists breakdown for Bonereapers while you’re at it?

Sylvaneth (43%), Cities of Sigmar (43%), Stormcast Eternals (41%), Ironjawz (40%) and Skaven (40%) are all below the acceptable tolerence level, and while the sample sizes for Cities and Ironjawz are low and therefore probably still subject to change going forwards, we can establish that Skaven, Stormcast and Sylvaneth are struggling this edition.

Using out old format of win rate reporting and removing factions with less than 20 results, we have the following table:

Subfaction Results

I often get requested for Subfaction results, so will start posting win rates for those subfactions who have exceeded a player representation of 20.

Player Results by Wins

This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly, it shows the faction popularity by the number of players, and secondly, it breaks down those players’ results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.

Here, we’ve included all the factions that have been played to date, as there is no benefit in removing those with a small sample size.

Soulblight Gravelords and Ossiarch Bonereapers seem to be the most popular factions right now, and with win rates of 58% it’s probably no surprise. They’re closely followed by the other two factions with the newest battletomes, Seraphon and Blades of Khorne.

Faction Popularity

With the recent release of the Seraphon tome, we’re seeing a large number of players jump to the order faction.

But while the Soulblight Gravelords are currently the most popular faction during this Battlescroll season, we’ve seen Blades of Khorne have had a resurgence in July, and this could be partly down to their anti-magic tech for the new GHB.

The full list month-by-month is below:

When looking at the above table, bear in mind that this is the worldwide meta, and region to region or even city to city may differ. So while this gives us a general idea of the meta worldwide it may not be representative of your local meta.

We’re seeing (as always) a massive spike in the player base of the new tomes that have been released and fall off on the older Tomes. This is to be expected really as competitive players jump around following the “Oooo shiny” method of collecting. They’ll likely always be a strong base for Stormcast Eternals, thanks to them appearing in nearly all beginner army sets, as magazine collections and the feature of many stories in Age of Sigmar.

Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from

Out of all the players using that faction (shown in brackets next to the faction name), this graph shows the number achieving a whitewash at a GT with 5 wins from 5. Those achieving 4 wins from 4 after the fourth round and those achieving 3 wins from 3 after the 3rd round. Take into account that those who achieve 5-0 are included in the numbers of 4 wins from 4 and 3 wins from 3. Likewise, those achieving 4 from 4 are included with the 3 from 3 data.

Results Split

This chart tells you which factions are more capable of achieving positive results at tournaments.

Conclusions

If you’re planning your list for a GT, look at the data as a whole. Don’t just look at our data either, look at TSN and also GW. Get a big picture, use these sites as sources to make your own informed opinion on the meta. Think about which armies are popular, as you’ll likely face at least one or two of these armies at some point during an event, especially in the earlier rounds.

Look at those factions that are regularly in a tournament winning position and winning GTs, as these are likely to be your opponents in the later rounds. I believe you should look at building a list that is able to cope with playing the following factions at some point in a GT if you’re looking to compete;

• Blades of Khorne
• Seraphon
• Stormcast Eternals
• Soulblight Gravelords
• Gloomspite Gitz

But also, if you’re playing a local GT with your club, then bear in mind that meta may be completely different to those given in the stats above. All of what is presented here, should be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully it gives you some guidance when it comes to list construction, or even army choice if you’re looking to play Age of Sigmar.

Our Database

This is our most copy of our database.