Category Archives: Meta Analysis

AoS Meta Stats W/Ending 27th November 2022

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Note: As promised, I have removed the ‘Immortal Masquerade’ results from the Woehammer Stats.

Faction Win Rates

Pre-Battlescroll

The data for post battlescroll tournaments is still too small to bring any meaningful information from post-battlescroll events. That being said the below shows the win rates for each faction. I expect that once we reach mid-December the numbers will be more reliable. But, please in the meantime take these with salt.

Player Results by Wins

This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly it shows the faction popularity by the number of players and secondly it breaks down those players results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.

Players Achieving 5-0 Wins

Win Chance

This shows the chance each faction has of achieving 5-0. This is calculated using the number of players that go 5-0 against the full number of players using that faction.

Like above, this show the chance of getting 4 or more wins (including 5-0).

And finally the chance of going 3+ wins (including 5-0 and 4+).

AOS Hall of Fame

Below is a list of all the players who first achieved a 5-0 with a faction. The list is completed in date order (earliest first).

The only factions still yet to achieve 5-0 are Blades of Khorne and Kruleboyz.

AoS Meta Stats W/Ending 20th November 2022

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Note: As promised, I have removed the ‘Immortal Masquerade’ results from the Woehammer Stats.

Faction Win Rates

Pre-Battlescroll

The data set is still too small to bring any meaningful information from post-battlescroll events. That being said the below shows the win rates for each faction. I expect that once we reach mid-December the numbers will be more reliable.

The above graph, compared to Warhammer Community’s Metawatch graph shows just how unreliable the data is at the moment. Anyone telling you they know what they win rates are doesn’t have a clear enough idea yet. Remember WarCom take all the results from BCP and don’t include draws. We only take GT events and split draws 50/50 between wins and losses.

Player Results by Wins

This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly it shows the faction popularity by the number of players and secondly it breaks down those players results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.

Players Achieving 5-0 Wins

Win Chance

Pre-Battlescroll

This shows the chance each faction has of achieving 5-0. This is calculated using the number of players that go 5-0 against the full number of players using that faction.

Pre-Battlescroll

Like above, this show the chance of getting 4 or more wins (including 5-0).

And finally the chance of going 3+ wins (including 5-0 and 4+).

AOS Hall of Fame

Below is a list of all the players who first achieved a 5-0 with a faction. The list is completed in date order (earliest first).

The only factions still yet to achieve 5-0 are Blades of Khorne, Gloomspite Gitz and Kruleboyz.

AoS Meta Stats W/Ending 13th November 2022

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Note: I have mistakenly included the ‘Immortal Masquerade’ results in these stats. They will be removed

The Running Stats

This graph shows each faction win rate for the four weeks leading up to the date at the top. This should show the effect of new Battletomes dropping as well as changes players make in adapting to the meta.

This is the last week for this graph, going forwards I will show the different rates under the Pre-Battlescroll and Post-Battlescroll results. This will then be added to with future releases and adjustments by Games Workshop.

Faction Win Rates

Pre-Battlescroll

The data set is still too small to bring any meaningful information from post-battlescroll events. That being said the below shows the win rates for each faction. BUT this also includes the player numbers for each to show just how small the dataset is at the moment, these win rates will adjust and settle as more and more GT’s are played.

Player Results by Wins

This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly it shows the faction popularity by the number of players and secondly it breaks down those players results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.

Players Achieving 5-0 Wins

Win Chance

Pre-Battlescroll

This shows the chance each faction has of achieving 5-0. This is calculated using the number of players that go 5-0 against the full number of players using that faction.

Pre-Battlescroll

Like above, this show the chance of getting 4 or more wins (including 5-0).

And finally the chance of going 3+ wins (including 5-0 and 4+).

AOS Hall of Fame

Below is a list of all the players who first achieved a 5-0 with a faction. The list is completed in date order (earliest first).

The only factions still yet to achieve 5-0 are Blades of Khorne, Gloomspite Gitz and Kruleboyz.

AoS Meta Stats W/Ending 6th November 2022

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The Running Stats

This graph shows each faction win rate for the four weeks leading up to the date at the top. This should show the effect of new Battletomes dropping as well as changes players make in adapting to the meta.

Faction Win Rates

Pre-Battlescroll

The data set is still too small to bring any meaningful information from post-battlescroll events.

Player Results by Wins

This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly it shows the faction popularity by the number of players and secondly it breaks down those players results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.

Players Achieving 5-0 Wins

Win Chance

This shows the chance each faction has of achieving 5-0. This is calculated using the number of players that go 5-0 against the full number of players using that faction.

Like above, this show the chance of getting 4 or more wins (including 5-0).

And finally the chance of going 3+ wins (including 5-0 and 4+).

AOS Hall of Fame

Below is a list of all the players who first achieved a 5-0 with a faction. The list is completed in date order (earliest first).

The only factions still yet to achieve 5-0 are Blades of Khorne, Gloomspite Gitz and Kruleboyz.

AoS Meta Stats W/Ending 30th October 2022

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So this is the last week for the overall stats since the start of the new General’s Handbook. Next week we’ll be starting again for the stats from the new Battlescroll.

The Running Stats

This graph shows each faction win rate for the four weeks leading up to the date at the top. This should show the effect of new Battletomes dropping as well as changes players make in adapting to the meta.

Faction Win Rates

The above shows the various factions win rates since the new GHB dropped back in July. You’ll see above that I’ve split the Sons of Behemat, Lumineth and Disciples into two, once for their new books (lines ending 3rd Ed) and the older tome.

Player Results by Wins

This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly it shows the faction popularity by the number of players and secondly it breaks down those players results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.

Tournaments in Winning Positions / 5-0 Results

This graph simply shows the number of times a faction has started the final round with 4 wins from 4 and also how many 5-0 the factions have achieved.

Win Chance

This shows the chance each faction has of achieving 5-0. This is calculated using the number of players that go 5-0 against the full number of players using that faction.

Like above, this show the chance of getting 4 or more wins (including 5-0).

And finally the chance of going 3+ wins (including 5-0 and 4+).

AOS Hall of Fame

Below is a list of all the players who first achieved a 5-0 with a faction. The list is completed in date order (earliest first).

The only factions still yet to achieve 5-0 are Blades of Khorne, Gloomspite Gitz and Kruleboyz.

AoS Meta Stats W/Ending 23rd October 2022

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Only one GT this week, so I’ve had a check up on the data and added some extra features for player rankings onto the database.

The Running Stats

This graph shows each faction win rate for the four weeks leading up to the date at the top. This should show the effect of new Battletomes dropping as well as changes players make in adapting to the meta.

Faction Win Rates

The above shows the various factions win rates since the new GHB dropped back in July.

Player Results by Wins

This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly it shows the faction popularity by the number of players and secondly it breaks down those players results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.

Tournaments in Winning Positions / 5-0 Results

This graph simply shows the number of times a faction has started the final round with 4 wins from 4 and also how many 5-0 the factions have achieved.

Win Chance

This shows the chance each faction has of achieving 5-0. This is calculated using the number of players that go 5-0 against the full number of players using that faction.

Like above, this show the chance of getting 4 or more wins (including 5-0).

And finally the chance of going 3+ wins (including 5-0 and 4+).

AOS Hall of Fame

Below is a list of all the players who first achieved a 5-0 with a faction. The list is completed in date order (earliest first).

The only factions still yet to achieve 5-0 are Blades of Khorne, Gloomspite Gitz and Kruleboyz.

AoS Meta Stats W/Ending 16th October 2022

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Only one GT this week, so I’ve had a check up on the data and added some extra features for player rankings onto the database.

The Running Stats

This graph shows each faction win rate for the four weeks leading up to the date at the top. This should show the effect of new Battletomes dropping as well as changes players make in adapting to the meta.

Faction Win Rates

The above shows the various factions win rates since the new GHB dropped back in July.

Player Results by Wins

This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly it shows the faction popularity by the number of players and secondly it breaks down those players results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.

Tournaments in Winning Positions / 5-0 Results

This graph simply shows the number of times a faction has started the final round with 4 wins from 4 and also how many 5-0 the factions have achieved.

Win Chance

This shows the chance each faction has of achieving 5-0. This is calculated using the number of players that go 5-0 against the full number of players using that faction.

Like above, this show the chance of getting 4 or more wins (including 5-0).

And finally the chance of going 3+ wins (including 5-0 and 4+).

AOS Hall of Fame

Below is a list of all the players who first achieved a 5-0 with a faction. The list is completed in date order (earliest first).

The only factions still yet to achieve 5-0 are Blades of Khorne, Gloomspite Gitz and Kruleboyz.

Player Ratings – Part 2

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You may have seen my post last week where I discussed calculating player ratings. I’ve had a number of further thoughts (and dead ends) since then!

Player Ratings

I’ve refined this ever so slightly, but I’m happy with the way these are now calculated for players. Player will score points at each GT they attend, the points available vary from faction to faction depending on their win rates.

How They’re Calculated
Each faction’s win rate is multiplied by 5 (the number of games at a GT) to give an expected result (for an average player) playing with that faction. This is then rounded to the nearest 0.5 (to represent draws):

These expected values are then divided by a value of 100 to give a points value for each win.

This would mean if that a player achieves their expected result, they would score 100 points. They score more for beating this and less for falling short. For example, a Gloomspite Gitz player scores 53 points for a win, while a Beasts of Chao player scores just 32.5 points. Meaning that if both the Gloomspite Gitz and Beasts of Chaos players both achieved 3 wins, then the Gloomspite Gitz player would score more points for achieving this with an underperforming faction.

Tournament Ratings
Some tournaments draw more players than others and so attract better players to the event. I had a few thoughts on how to reflect this, all of which didn’t really work.

My first thought was to weight each faction with a rating based on their win rate, total up these for a tournament and divide that by the number of players. Only this always kept coming back to roughly the same figure, as the factions more often than not cancelled each other out.

My next idea was to take the scores of each player and take an average for that event. This also didn’t work as in some cases a 9 man event had a higher average player score than events such as NOVA or the London GT.

In the end I settled on the ATP Tennis system (or close to it anyway). Where each tournament is given a multiplier based on its size. These multipliers wouldn’t be score breaking, but they would differentiate between attending a large event and small event. In the end the multipliers I settled on were as follows:

PlayersMultiplier
1-16 Players0.9
17-32 Players1.0
33-64 Players1.1
65-128 Players1.2
129+ Players1.3

Based on this a player who achieves exactly the same result with the same faction at two different sized events will score slightly more points for the larger events.

For events where there is a player off for the champion, those games are also awarded points in the same manner as the previous 5.

An Example Event

Here are the results of the Justice Series GT which took place this last weekend. These results are as presented on BCP, ranked with the number of wins and then battle points from their games:

Now, if we apply our faction scores calculated above for each win and then multiply each player score by a factor of 1.2 (as it’s an 82-player event) we get the following adjusted leader board:

This method should allow players to compete on an equal footing regardless of which faction they choose to play with at an event.

When is it calculated?

This is the important part. As you can’t calculate the results on the day of the event. Win rates, as we all know, are fluctuating all the time. The easiest method would be to lock the win rates down once a new FAQ, Battlescroll or Generals Handbook is released for the game. That way you have set periods of time where players are all competing using the same rules, once the next release is made, the win rates are locked in for that period and scores can be calculated for the events that have taken place.

At the moment, we’re still in the GHB release phase and are waiting for the new FAQ/Battlescroll drop in the next week. Once that happens, we can lock down the scores for the tournaments that have taken place since the start of July.

Players will gain scores for their best four events during the six months under each Generals Handbook season. This would have been five or six normally, but as the seasons are dropping to six months, the number of events a player can attend in that time is different.

Current Top 20 Players

Using the method described above, I’ve calculated each players performance at each GT and have taken their top four scores:

This is only an example at the minute, as the win rates for this period are still fluctuating.

What do you think?

Let me know below or on our Discord server!

AoS Meta Stats W/Ending 9th October 2022

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Last week I explained the reason for any differences you may notice between our own data and that of Games Workshops and Honest Wargamers. In my opinion of the two, Honest Wargamers is a more reliable data set.

The Running Stats

This graph shows each faction win rate for the four weeks leading up to the date at the top. This should show the effect of new Battletomes dropping as well as changes players make in adapting to the meta.

Faction Win Rates

The above shows the various factions win rates since the new GHB dropped back in July.

Player Results by Wins

This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly it shows the faction popularity by the number of players and secondly it breaks down those players results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.

Tournaments in Winning Positions / 5-0 Results

This graph simply shows the number of times a faction has started the final round with 4 wins from 4 and also how many 5-0 the factions have achieved.

Win Chance

This shows the chance each faction has of achieving 5-0. This is calculated using the number of players that go 5-0 against the full number of players using that faction.

Like above, this show the chance of getting 4 or more wins (including 5-0).

And finally the chance of going 3+ wins (including 5-0 and 4+).

AOS Hall of Fame

Below is a list of all the players who first achieved a 5-0 with a faction. The list is completed in date order (earliest first).

The only factions still yet to achieve 5-0 are Blades of Khorne, Gloomspite Gitz and Kruleboyz.

Player Performance (4 GT’s or more)

Calculating AoS Player Rankings

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Calculating AoS Player Rankings

Some of you may remember back in August I had a failed attempt at generating player rankings based on the ELO Chess rating system. While the theory was okay in itself it wasn’t without its flaws. Firstly, it required a lot of man hours to maintain, as I had to cross-reference each player score against their opponents in each round. Secondly, it didn’t take into account that claiming a win with a faction such as Seraphon or Nurgle would be perhaps easier than claiming a win with Gloomspite Gitz or Kruleboyz. So, the system was eventually dropped with few people noticing.

The idea hasn’t gone away, and I would like to revisit it, perhaps with your own input this time around.

Woehammer Scoring

First of all, I believe factions need to be taken into account when scoring. But how can you do that?

Faction win rates can vary at present from 60% down to 30%, so a faction that has a 30% win-rate is expected to end a tournament with 1 win and 1 draw while a faction with a 60% win-rate should get 3 wins. Let’s level this out by taking a base value of 150 points and dividing it by the expected results for each win-rate.

Win Rate (%)Expected Result (5 Game Event)Win Value
100%5-0-030.0
90%4-1-033.3
80%4-0-137.5
70%3-1-142.9
60%3-0-250.0
50%2-1-260.0
40%2-0-375.0
30%1-1-2100.0
20%1-0-4150.0
10%0-1-4300.0

Now let’s put this into practice. Currently Beasts of Chaos have a 61% win-rate, meaning there’s an expectation for them to claim 3 wins and 2 losses from a five-game tournament. Looking at their win rate in the above table, each win is worth 50 points and a draw half that. If a player manages to achieve 3 wins, they’ll get 150 points. Now let’s look at a Kruleboyz player. They have a win rate of 37.8% so let’s round that up to 40% and look at our table above, they should achieve 2 wins and three loses. The player goes on to achieve this and scores 150 points, the same as our Beasts of Chaos player. This is because they have both matched their factions expected win rates.

Now let’s look at what happens when these two factions achieve four wins and a loss each at the event. The Beasts of Chaos player will score 50 points for each win giving them a total of 200 points. Our Kruleboyz player scores 75 points for each win and so scores a massive 300 points placing them above the Beasts of Chaos player in the rankings. This reflects the difficulty of achieving those four wins with what is viewed as a more difficult faction to win with.

Using this method, should place all the players on a relatively level playing field, a player who goes undefeated with Beasts of Chaos will score 250 points while a Kruleboyz player need only claim 3 wins and a draw to surpass that score.

Tournament Size

The size of the event also needs to be taken into account; this is where we change the base value of the scoring. For example, in a five round event you need 32 players to get a single 5-0 winner. Weighting for a tournament would then be applied once the scores had been calculated.

To do this, take the number of players at the event and divide by 32. Thsi will give you a multiplier to use on the final score.

For example, a Beasts of Chaos player manages four wins at a 54-player event. They score 50 points per win giving them a total of 200 points. We then take the number of players and divide that by 32 giving 1.6875. To calculate their final score, we multiply 200 by 1.6875 giving that player a final score of 337.50. These multipliers should only be used for 5 round events. If the event is 6 rounds, then it should be based on 64 rather than 32.

This scoring then reflects the number of players at the event as well as that event being able to attract more ‘big name’ players.

Timing of Calculations

The win rates for factions fluctuate and so these can’t be calculated with accuracy at the time of the event. To resolve this, each event should be calculated once the next FAQ, Battlescroll or GHB has dropped, this will ‘lock’ the win rates for those factions between those periods. For example, an event takes place on 13th August between the GHB being released at the beginning of July and the FAQ for a new battletome being dropped on 24th September. Once the FAQ has dropped, win-rates for factions are locked in that period and can be applied to the calculations for all events that happened during that time.

So, what do you think? Is there any viability in scoring players using this method?

Woeful Wargaming