- How Win Rates are Calculated
- Event Submission Template
- Faction Win Rates
- Faction Popularity
- Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from 3
- Results Split
The data contained inside this article is only Woehammer’s interpretation. There are differing methods and analyses of the data available from Games Workshop and Honest Wargamer, whose methodology differs slightly from our own.
All of these sources should be viewed as a collective whole to allow you to gather a larger picture of the Age of Sigmar meta. The win rates, while accurate for events we have on record so far, are likely to change in the coming weeks and shouldn’t be the single point of reference for a factions strength.
How Win Rates are Calculated
All of our data is pulled from two day single events. We split all draws between the wins and losses of a faction evenly, as we believe this provides a fair reflection of a factions win rate. For example, as a player, you may achieve 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw at an event. Some sites will only count the wins towards the faction rate, so in this case, 40% (2/5=0.4). Woehammer includes half of the draws, so our result would be 50% (2.5/5=0.5).
We have also included a confidence interval based on the sample size and their results. This interval has a 95% confidence rate. What does this mean? Essentially, we’re 95% sure that the win rate of the faction will fall inside this band at the release of the next battlescroll.
We have decided to include this as each factions win rates can (and will) fluctuate as more and more players post their results. While the faction win rate may be that specified right now, it is more than likely to change in the future. So when looking at a win rate, take into account the number of players who have posted results, as well as the upper and lower limit of that 95% confidence interval. This will give a good indication of the future win rate of that faction.
How is the confidence interval calculated?
First of all we calculate each factions standard deviation (this is the spread in player results).
If you have organised an event that doesn’t appear in our database and has the following minimum requirements to be included:
- Two Day Event
- Singles Event
- Minimum of 8 players
Then why not complete the form attached and send the results to email@example.com? We’ll include them the next time we produce the stats.
- GT Wargame Garrison Madrid
- AoS Ironman
- Østjysk Mesterskab I terningehøjdekast
- Rise of the Champions
- Quest of Champions – Heat 1
- Bloodshed in the Shires
- Columbus Brewhammer
- DaBoyz Golden Sprue GT
- War of the Ospreys
- Realm of Geddon
- Gods of War 3
- Great South Waaagh
- War of the Spider God
- Midwest Bash 2 AoS GT
- Aos Alliance Open Masters
- Battle at the Brook
- Sheffield Slaughter
- The Lone Star Grand Tournament
- Battle of Copenhagen
- Sydney Salt Smash
- Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Matched Play Event
- Cherokee Open
- Small Town Throwdoen: Smoke on the Water
- AOSFF Solo 2022-2023 Finale
- Norsehammer Open
- G&T GT
- Sigmar’s Spice Rack
- Golden Potato
- Realmgate Rampage II
- Brewdog AoS GT
- Midtcon GT
- Southampton GT
- Silverstream Smackdown
- War in the North 3
- Straight Edge Wargaming
- Guts & Glory AoS Club Tournament
- Sparkle Party Deathmatch VIII
- Rocky Mountain Open
- Rumble in the Rockies
- March Mayhem
Faction Win Rates
As we have now included a confidence interval within our data based on the sample size and results, we have now included all factions within the below tables regardless of their player base.
You’ll see in the chart above that each faction shows its current win rate as a % inside a text box. The paler green and yellow segments show the margin of error of that win rate. We predict with 95% confidence that the win rate will be within the paler bars upon the release of the next battlescroll.
Our first takeaway is that at the present win rates, Big Waaagh and Lumineth Real-Lords both have current win rates of over 55%. However, bear in mind that the player base for Big Waaagh is extremely small at just 13 players. This could mean that those players who are dedicated to a faction in this way are more knowledgeable about the tricks to get the most out of their models. On top of that, factions with a large sample size such as Stormcast Eternals or Slaves to Darkness will have players with varying skill levels playing them, as a result this can drag down their win rate compared to a faction with a smaller sample size.
If you wish to view our traditional win rate chart without the margin of confidence:
Player Results by Wins
This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly, it shows the faction popularity by the number of players, and secondly, it breaks down those players’ results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.
Here, we’ve included all the factions that have been played to date, as there is no benefit in removing those with a small sample size.
For once Stormcast have been knocked off their perch as the most popular faction, with Slaves to Darkness now taking the top spot.
Looking further into this, let’s compare some of these factions current popularity to their past results.
I’ve chosen seven factions, all of which have been affected by either new Battletomes or rules changes in some way over the last few months.
Ogor Mawtribes saw a large jump in their player base from December onwards as the players started seeing the potential of their new battletome.
We can also see straight away the effect of the Slaves to Darkness new Battletone in January/February with time. Their share of the player base jumped from roughly 2.5% in the previous months to well over 5% in January onwards. With 9.4% of all the players in February choosing Slaves to Darkness. Likewise, we see a drop in the percentage of Seraphon, Sons of Behemat, and Idoneth Deepkin players for the same time periods.
With the recent release of the Gloomspite Gitz tome, we’re also seeing a large number of players jump to the revamped destruction faction.
The full list month-by-month is below:
Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from 3
Out of all the players using that faction (shown in brackets next to the faction name), this graph shows the number achieving a whitewash at a GT with 5 wins from 5. Those achieving 4 wins from 4 after the fourth round and those achieving 3 wins from 3 after the 3rd round. Take into account that those who achieve 5-0 are included in the numbers of 4 wins from 4 and 3 wins from 3. Likewise, those achieving 4 from 4 are included with the 3 from 3 data.
We can see here that the graph is sorted left to right by the number of 5-0s. Lumineth Realm-Lords have achieved the most with 6 players going 5-0. When looking at this graph, bear in mind the player base size shown in brackets.
This graph can tell you which factions are more capable of achieving 5-0 results. But bear in mind those factions with smaller sample sizes such as Big Waaagh or Cities of Sigmar will have a dedicated player base who know their time very well. It does show that Fyreslayers, while being relatively popular, also have a fair number of their players achieve 5-0.
If you’re planning your list for a GT, look at the data as a whole. Think about which armies are popular, as you’ll likely face at least one or two of these armies at some point during an event, especially in the earlier rounds.
Look at those factions that are regularly in a tournament winning position and winning GTs, as these are likely to be your opponents in the later rounds. I believe you should look at building a list that is able to cope with playing the following factions at some point in a GT if you’re looking to compete;
- Slaves to Darkness
- Stormcast Eternals
- Ogor Mawtribes
- Gloomspite Gitz
- Lumineth Realm-Lords
But also, if you’re playing a local GT with your club, then bear in mind that meta may be completely different to those given in the stats above. All of what is presented here, should be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully it gives you some guidance when it comes to list construction, or even army choice if you’re looking to play Age of Sigmar.
This is our most copy of our database.