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• Disclaimer
• How Win Rates are Calculated
  • Confidence Level
• Event Submission Template
• Faction Win Rates
• Faction Popularity
• Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from 3
• Results Split
• Conclusions

Disclaimer

The data contained inside this article is only Woehammer’s interpretation. There are differing methods and analyses of the data available from Games Workshop and Honest Wargamer, whose methodology differs slightly from our own.

All of these sources should be viewed as a collective whole to allow you to gather a larger picture of the Age of Sigmar meta. The win rates, while accurate for events we have on record so far, are likely to change in the coming weeks and shouldn’t be the single point of reference for a factions strength.

How Win Rates are Calculated

All of our data is pulled from two day single events. We split all draws between the wins and losses of a faction evenly, as we believe this provides a fair reflection of a factions win rate. For example, as a player, you may achieve 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw at an event. Some sites will only count the wins towards the faction rate, so in this case, 40% (2/5=0.4). Woehammer includes half of the draws, so our result would be 50% (2.5/5=0.5).

We have also included a confidence interval based on the sample size and their results. This interval has a 95% confidence rate. What does this mean? Essentially, we’re 95% sure that the win rate of the faction will fall inside this band at the release of the next battlescroll.

We have decided to include this as each factions win rates can (and will) fluctuate as more and more players post their results. While the faction win rate may be that specified right now, it is more than likely to change in the future. So when looking at a win rate, take into account the number of players who have posted results, as well as the upper and lower limit of that 95% confidence interval. This will give a good indication of the future win rate of that faction.

Event Submission

If you have organised an event that doesn’t appear in our database and has the following minimum requirements to be included:

• Two Day Event
• Singles Event
• Minimum of 8 players

Then why not complete the form attached and send the results to thewoehammer@gmail.com? We’ll include them the next time we produce the stats.

Data Overview

Tournaments Included:

Faction Win Rates

As we have now included a confidence interval within our data based on the sample size and results, we have now included all factions within the below tables regardless of their player base.

Win Rates

You’ll see in the chart above that each faction shows its current win rate as a % inside a text box. The paler green and yellow segments show the margin of error of that win rate. We predict with 95% confidence that the win rate will be within the paler bars upon the release of the next battlescroll.

Remember that a lot of the data sets for these factions is still very small and are likely to sway a considerable amount over the next few weeks. So take the info included in this article with a massive helping of salt.

Here we go again then! Another Battlescroll starting to kick off. With no suprise to anyone, Kharadron Overlords (60%) are leading the way with Blades of Khorne (60%), the new Soulblight Gravelords (58%) and Hedonites of Slaanesh (57%) hot on their heels. All of these books have been released within the last couple of months, which unfortunately would suggest some power creep in the books, or possibly a relaxation of the review process that we’ve seen in the previous tomes. I can only assume at this point that this could be due to the writing staff now upping their workload with 4th Edition as we close on a year until it’s release. Are the writers having as much time to work on these Battletomes as before? Have we seen a regurgitation of rules from other books to save time?

Also, with being a fresh battlescroll which didn’t actually seem to affect these top armies that much, we’re likely to have this as the status quo now for a good long while until the next General Handbook release. Unless of course, they decide to do some kind of emergency adjustment? But I doubt they’ll do that, and just use the time to gather data to sharpen the effect of the next battlescroll and handbook release.

Like I said, this is my assumption, and I’m by no way saying this IS what is happening.

If you wish to view our traditional win rate chart without the margin of confidence:

Player Results by Wins

This graph has at least two purposes. Firstly, it shows the faction popularity by the number of players, and secondly, it breaks down those players’ results in terms of the number of wins they achieve.

Here, we’ve included all the factions that have been played to date, as there is no benefit in removing those with a small sample size.

Stormcast Eternals (44%) continue to have been left on the shelves in favour of Slaves to Darkness (48%). Gloomspite Gitz (55%) also have jumped up a few places and now have taken the number one spot from Slaves as well. This is likely due to the last Battlescroll having little to no effect on their playas they continue with a 55% win rate.

Faction Popularity

With the recent release of the Gloomspite Gitz tome, we’re also seeing a large number of players jump to the revamped destruction faction.

The full list month-by-month is below:

When looking at the above table, bear in mind that this is the worldwide meta, and region to region or even city to city may differ. So while this gives us a general idea of the meta worldwide it may not be representative of your local meta.

We’re seeing (as always) a massive spike in the player base of the new tomes that have been released and fall off on the older Tomes. This is to be expected really as competitive players jump around following the “Oooo shiny” method of collecting. They’ll likely always be a strong base for Stormcast Eternals (44%), thanks to them appearing in nearly all beginner army sets, as magazine collections and the feature of many stories in Age of Sigmar.

Players Achieving 5-0 Wins, Tournaments in Winning Positions and 3 Wins from 3

Out of all the players using that faction (shown in brackets next to the faction name), this graph shows the number achieving a whitewash at a GT with 5 wins from 5. Those achieving 4 wins from 4 after the fourth round and those achieving 3 wins from 3 after the 3rd round. Take into account that those who achieve 5-0 are included in the numbers of 4 wins from 4 and 3 wins from 3. Likewise, those achieving 4 from 4 are included with the 3 from 3 data.

Gloomspite Gitz (55%), although seem to have a large amount of players reaching 3 wins from 3, but seem to be unable to convert this into 4 from 4, likely thanks to the other strong Battletomes floating around at the moment.

Results Split

This chart tells you which factions are more capable of achieving positive results at tournaments. Eight factions in this list have over 50% of their players achieving a minimum of 3 wins at GT’s. With four of those achieving over 60% of their player base managing 3 or more wins. I find it interesting that nearly 70% of Hedonites of Slaanesh (57%) players are able to achieve 3 or more wins, but only 2% are able to achieve the full 5. Thats a huge drop off, and suggests that they really suffer in the final round or two of GT’s when they are coming up against the top tier armies such as Kharadron Overlords (60%), Blades of Khorne (60%) and Disciples of Tzeentch (54%). Disciples appear to perform particularly well in later rounds as 8% of their players achieve 5-0 (that would be a third after Kharadron and Blades if you were to place them in a league table. Be wary though, if you’re thinking of collecting Tzeentch because of that stat, remember their player base is relatively small and so it’s likely they are being handled by stalwart fans who know their army well.

Conclusions

If you’re planning your list for a GT, look at the data as a whole. Don’t just look at our data either, look at TSN and also GW. Get a big picture, use these.sites as sources to make your own informed opinion on the meta. Think about which armies are popular, as you’ll likely face at least one or two of these armies at some point during an event, especially in the earlier rounds.

Look at those factions that are regularly in a tournament winning position and winning GTs, as these are likely to be your opponents in the later rounds. I believe you should look at building a list that is able to cope with playing the following factions at some point in a GT if you’re looking to compete;

• Slaves to Darkness
• Stormcast Eternals
• Hedonites of Slaanesh
• Blades of Khorne
• Gloomspite Gitz
• Kharadron Overlords

But also, if you’re playing a local GT with your club, then bear in mind that meta may be completely different to those given in the stats above. All of what is presented here, should be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully it gives you some guidance when it comes to list construction, or even army choice if you’re looking to play Age of Sigmar.

Our Database

This is our most copy of our database.